2 years break. First Day back. What In The Actual Frak!?! EVE statistics from 2003 - 2017 Present Day


(Oryion) #1

The EVE-convenient Truth - A story of pilot decay.

May 4th, 2013 Saw 65,303 active pilots online. Not since or before have we reached more active pilots. The decade from alpha to 2013 was an increase of a few hundred to 65,000. The almost half decade since has seen a 100% steady pilot decay.

The following yearly peak was in Feb 2014 at 57,213 active online pilots.

From 2003 to 2005 there was a small player base that started to take off during 2005 and continued to rocket by the same amount or average each year till the peak of 2013. 2013, while maybe not the best fiscal year for revenue, was the best year in EVE history for steady active players online and peaks throughout the year of over 50k many many times.

After the 2013 peak of 65,303 pilots, EVE began its slow descent down losing pilots. Pilot decay has not been worse before or after. The pilot decay has been continining since 2013. While our loss of players is at a steady downward pace we are not losing them as fast as we gained them during EVE Circa 2005 - 2013 named by most; the “Good Ol Days”. From 2010 to the end of 2013/start of 2014 the average player count was 50,000 players on the weekends and holidays. Now That player average from 2014 to 2016 is less than 30k. Somewhere around the 26-28k mark. Still slowly progressing down from 2013 to now. Taking the last year into consideration we are looking at an average of only 30k -33k at it’s highest average for 2017.

2016 saw a spike at Christmas of 51,000 players but dropped from there and again has not stopped dropping to where we currently sit. 2017 averages out at like I said 30k - 33k active players on peak times. Weekends and holidays. All peaks are holidays, esp Christmas as well as winter, and summer. These 3 things metrics have been in the EVE statistics and analytics since 2003 beta.

The fact of the matter remains. EVE is bleeding pilots. If you take into consideration the banning of a lot of high-level players who’s fan base followed them to their biomassed graves and the EULA changes regarding multi-boxing, ISBoxer, and bot mining which disrupted the economy as well as the player base, it still does not make up the difference in the steady decay.

From June of this year to about 2 months ago, September, we stagnated at the same 25k-31K-ish players. Longest stagnation of low peak in 3 years. EVE reached the hight of it’s popularity in 2012 through 2013. What we have now are a fanbase of loyal players, returning vets, and newbs who keep the game going.

THIS IS NOT ANOTHER EVE IS DEAD POST! Just to put that out there. EVE is CLEARLY NOT dead. However, DIEING? Maybe. Maybe Not. This is simply the empirical facts based on data generated from the server. (COURTESY AND CREDIT to Chribba - OMG Labs) Based on the data of over ~14 years if current data remains true and the decay remains steady as it has for many many years in just 2 years we will only have 15-20k players on during Friday and Saturday nights. less than 10k players during the weekday. SOLO PVP will be an afterthought at that point as well as much more.

So with this all being said what can we as players do to KEEP the EVE alive and bring in more players to stop the steady pilot and player decay. Or what are your thoughts in general?

NOTE: I have already anticipated the mass trolling of this post. So, by all means, Go ahead. = ) This post was meant for more like-minded people who are open to analytics, business and industry metrics and statistics and care about their in-game assets and what their worth will be in a few years. Or the average interested player. That Guardian vexor You’ve had for 10 years, or the Mega Fed, or any other legacy items or t2 BPO’s that are priceless now will be priceless in the worst of ways in years to come if we as players do not fix this.

Thanks to the very very few who will read this and understand.

Regards,
Oryion - Tek


(mkint) #3

This is not news.

Here’s how this thread is going to go:

1 group of players will go "yeah EVE is dying! CCP is evil, it’s only a matter of time!"
another group of players will try to explain it away as a result of changes in the MMO market.
Another group will explain it away as a side effect of EVE’s age
One group will jump in saying that structures will somehow save EVE, though they know that particular optimism is already obsolete and will claim that the slight modifications of structures that is planned will somehow save EVE.
Can’t forget the big blue donut and/or goons taking their fair share of blame.

Did I miss any?


(Keno Skir) #4

That was a really good post. +1

You may have missed us over here in the “changes to make EvE less harsh and unforgiving, as well as jump drives creating stagnation have in part lead to this” crowd :parrotmustache:


(Quelza) #5

The group saying that the CCP needs to up the ante in their advertising now that they seem to have a direction they want to take Alphas in.


(mkint) #6

Crap, I should have remembered the gankers/wannabe pirates. I guess I must tend to forget they even exist or something. Maybe their droning has turned into so much white noise. :stuck_out_tongue:

Jump drives are part of the big blue donut though, so I think that’s already covered.


(mkint) #7

I suppose. People made that noise before the first Alpha pass, and that spike was only temporary. But I guess my post was about the noise people make rather than what’s actually going on, so that’s fair. My stance: the changes to alphas won’t affect EVE’s TCU count, because that’s not why EVE has been declining over the years.


(Oryion) #8

Apparently the entire post. Or point to the post. Assumptions will get you no where.

I love EVE . We ALL, love EVE. Those that don’t love EVE well… they actually love EVE but don’t know they do.

EVE Will NEVER DIE per say. Not till CCP takes the server offline. And Even after loyal fans will somehow find a way to host their own servers. EVE will live on no matter what. Diablo 2 Lord of Destruction is a good analogy for this.

But I’m not talking about the conversation people have. I want to know and talk about that which we’ve never discussed. Because it’s only that which we’ve never said, being that which we’ve never done, will be that which inevitably stops or expedites pilot decay.

I personally love EVE. EVE has been a bedrock of my life for as long as I can remember. I do not want to see her go. I personally host EVE websites and spend a portion of those proceeds to my own EVE online marketing. It’s not much but I do my part. That’s all I kow to say.


(Keno Skir) #9

Why dya think it is?


(mkint) #11

Why does anyone stop playing any game? Because it stops being fun. In the “good ol’ days” EVE was fun because there was the pretense that anything could happen, any goal was achievable, and the pursuit itself was fun and worthwhile.

What has changed? I guess I’m more in line with the “CCP are evil” crowd. Or maybe the world has changed… if I want bullsh1t political drama, I can open up my news feed, I don’t have to devote thousands of hours to a game where nothing much happens.


(Wheelwright Phien) #12

Why does anyone stop playing any game? Because it stops being fun. In the “good ol’ days” EVE was fun because there was the pretense that anything could happen, any goal was achievable, and the pursuit itself was fun and worthwhile.

It’s kind of a weird statement to make considering the myriad of different ways people can play EVE, but overall I’d agree. The game just stopped being “fun” for a lot of different playstyles.

The playstyle that changed the least is highsec carebearig, but that is precisely the problem because it was always the worst designed part of the game that could never hold players’ attention for long. Heh, I remember years ago that CCP said they recognize the problem and even appointed CCP_whoever as a lead of PvE design commitee or something. And in my stupidity, I thought something will actually come out of this. Well, what came out of this is Agency, which is exactly the same damn shooting of red crosses as 14 years ago, but the sites are thematic and part of events.

The playstyle that changed the most is nullsec, and not any of it for the better. Fozziesov makes defending space a retarded chore and the resource rebalance - well just look at ■■■■■■■ Delve. Combined, all I can think of Civilization V: An empire-building game where there is not only no reason to build an empire, but in fact you are actively punished for doing so. So is EVE nullsec right now: an empire-building game where there is no reason to build an empire(because resources are infinite to grind in truly absurd amounts wherever you are anyway) and in fact you are actively punished for doing so(with more entosis trollceptors and jump fatigue making it impossible to cover large area with cap umbrella)

These are only two different faces of EVE but seriously - is there an area of the game/playstyle where people say everything is fne as is?


(Ima Wreckyou) #13

This is clearly how the forum works.


(Ramona McCandless) #14

Old games lose interest.

How is this news?


(Yiole Gionglao) #15

EVE was fun when we were new players.

EVE was fun when we were experienced players.

EVE was fun when we were veteran players.

EVE was EVE when we were players.

EVE still is EVE but we no longer are players. And somehow this is EVE’s doing & CCP’s fault, because they followed their own path as our paths diverged.

EVE has lost literally millions of veterans. But EVE can’t follow millions of paths.

What must rise must fall, and EVE is falling. Saving our visions of EVE can’t save it. Even if we point exactly when and how EVE started dying for us and for everyone, it all boils down to EVE following its natural path from cradle to tomb.

Yes, not taking the N last wrong turns would have had an impact. But EVE can’t live forever. Other wrong turns would have happened.

EVE is aging, not developing. Sheet will happen at every turn. And at the end of its days, we all will say: “what a hell of a ride it was!”

Then we will carry on as EVE is just a game, and all games stop being played sooner or later.


(Soldier Forrester) #16

Maybe getting the chinese on TQ is the master plan all along


(yellow parasol) #17

Your analysis is invalid.

  • it does not include MCT and SP trading, which caused people to remove or consolidate characters into less accounts
  • you look at peaks and ignore the rest of the day, which is not covered by peaks.
  • it consideres the artificial peak of 65k accounts online, which is invalid, because CCP deliberately told everyone tolog in everything to make it look big for the anniversary.

Try again.


(xxxTRUSTxxx) #18

May 4th, 2013 Saw 65,303 accounts logged in at the same time.

how come you guys never explain the whole story, like how CCP was aiming to beat their record on how many accounts where logged on at the same time and how they asked people on a live strream to log every single account you have on, and if you can log in trial accounts please do. the number isn’t real.

so perhaps someone like yourself who says they are open to analytics, business and industry metrics and statistics would please stick to the facts and not try dress it up to be something it’s not, oh hang on, thats what you guys do isn’t it, find yaself some numbers, make a pretty graph that shows what you want then make colourful statements about your predictions based on your knowledge of the current market/situation.

i’m more interested in why people like you make posts like this and when people make comments you don’t want you turn your post into a Hey this post wasn’t meant for people like you, it was meant for people like me!

get a room ffs. if you can’t handle the replies don’t make a thread.


(yellow parasol) #19

Your post reminds me of that JPMorgan bankster (as in: gangster) who said bitcoins are a fraud yaddayaddabla will burst eventually even if it reaches 100k yaddayaddadrivelnonsense…

And then he got caught buying coins.


(Matthias Ancaladron) #20

Well CCP never finished anything. It’s 2017 and we still don’t have walking in station or a real single player quest system like runescape with story’s and cutscenes outside of your ship.
People get tired after waiting years.
If there’s no meaningful pve experience and quests people inevitably ditch it cause that’s the biggest draw of MMOs. Quests and raids.
Eve has neither


(Ramona McCandless) #21

Was this supposed to be a thing?

I think I missed that memo.

Was it supposed to be instanced too?


(Giddy McFee) #22

100% decay in online pilots, that is really interesting, so hardly anyone logs n anymore apparently