So CCP’s Crimson Harvest banner boldly asks “WILL YOU GET A TITAN?” and naturally, half of New Eden perked up, thinking there’s an actual Titan giveaway.
Let’s clear the warp bubbles and look at the fine print:
The October 6 news post said the final reward crate would “include a Blood Raider ship blueprint.”
The October 28 update added that “the most fortunate capsuleers may land the fabled Dagon or Molok.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/1oik17j/crimson_harvest_done_bpc/
No drop odds are published.
On Reddit, players are already saying, “Surely the chances for the titan and dread are insanely low,” while crates are trading for around 2 billion ISK.
Translation: you’re not being given a Titan. You’re being given a chance at a chance. It’s a lottery ticket wrapped in a grind, tucked inside a crate that may or may not contain anything more valuable than a blueprint for a cruiser or frigate.
Yes, technically, the Molok (a Titan-class ship) is in the loot pool. And yes, the ad’s question “Will you get a Titan?” isn’t technically false. But calling it a Titan giveaway is like saying you can win the lottery just because you bought the scratch-off.
It’s brilliant marketing. It got clicks. But it’s not a Titan giveaway.
My estimated odds:
Based on zero confirmed Reddit posts or forum threads of players pulling a Molok BPC from the crate so far, active threads saying “the odds are insanely low,” and crates still trading at roughly 2 billion ISK, and the price of existing Molok BPCs being in the hundreds of billions of ISK when they surface, which implies extreme rarity.
I’d estimate less than 0.01% per crate for the Titan class drop, and quite possibly far lower (one in 100,000 or worse). If even 1 in 1,000 crates produced a Molok, we’d likely have multiple confirmations by now. We don’t. So a safe bet is well under 0.01%.
Expected value sanity check:
Suppose crates are selling or trading for about 2 billion ISK, and the market value of a Molok is hundreds of billions of ISK. In that case, the expected value contributed by the Titan drop is negligible. If the chance were significantly higher, crate prices would be vastly higher than 2 billion. The math backs up what players are saying: the Titan chance is basically a lottery fantasy.
A note to CCP:
If anyone in Reykjavik is reading this, maybe keep the hyperbole docked unless someone actually will get a Titan. Or at least publish a drop table or the odds. We publish tables for DED loot, so why not this?
Until then, I’ll be over here running sites and pretending my blueprint crate contains dreams instead of another Cruor.
