In acknowledgement of the recent debates throughout the IGS, media coverage and debate in the wider interested society I have taken the liberty to compile the data on the results of the fighting between EDENCOM and Triglavian forces in the space of the different empires and run some basic analysis. These findings are preliminary and based just on the outcomes of all battles to date. Final results may change as the sides change their tactics.
Edit / Addendum: As our work has lead to another, maybe more interesting finding in the Balance-of-Power-Hypothesis of Liminality, I will link it here for more visibility:
Different Outcomes of EDENCOM/Triglavian battles in different empires
I also want to thank Elsebeth Rhiannon for providing some additional analysis via the open scientific comms network of ARC.
A. Core Finding:
Given the outcomes of battles in the space of the four empires, we can see a great disparity of outcomes that cannot be explained by chance alone. From the four empires, the Amarr are overperforming the most, while the Caldari are falling behind the curve.
B. Explanation of used data:
The database used as source of the outcome-data is the Kybernaut-provided Interface here: https://kybernaut.space/invasions The data used in this preliminary report was compiled on 21:00, 22/06/122.
For the analysis, only data of systems that have reached a stable state after Triglavian activities were considered.
Not considered were:
- Systems that were still in an unstable phase (Stellar Reconnaissance, Redoubts, Bulwarks, First and Second Liminality).
- Systems where the forces skirmished and mutually retreated without any side gaining a stable presence.
The total number of cases was 48.
C. Outcome distributions:
C1. System distribution by Empire
First we can look at the number of systems of each empire that have seen a Triglavian presence. EDENCOM and the empires probably have no control over this. While it seems like the Triglavians are attacking the Amarr Empire more often than others, comparing the systems with a random distribution throughout all of low- and high-sec there seems to be no major deviation. In that way, the amount of Amarr systems under attack is a result of them claiming an comparably larger amount of space.
(Amarr: 25, Gallente: 10, Minmatar: 4, Caldari: 9)
C2. Outcome distribution overall
Looking at the general distribution of outcomes across all systems we see 19 EDENCOM Fortresses, 13 Minor EDENCOM Victories, 12 Minor Triglavian Victories and 4 Final Liminalities. I will let the readers make their own judgement of the benchmarks both sides would need to fulfill to consider their results “good” or “bad”.
Slightly more generalized, 32 systems with a firm conclusion were won by EDENCOM, 16 by the Triglavian Collective (basically a perfect 2 to 1 split).
C3. Outcome distribution by empire
Having established the other distributions, I finally looked at the outcome distribution of the battles in relation to the empires space they were fought in. I’ll let the graphic speak for itself first:
What we can clearly see is that the results of triglavian activities are very different across the empires. While systems under Amarr sovereignty could resist the Triglavians in 92% of cases, Gallente space had a EDENCOM-victory-quote of 60% and Minmatar space 50%. The Collective had the most success in Caldari space, where EDENCOM could only secure a single victory in Samanuni (11% of cases). Basis statistic analysis suggests that these results are highly unlikely to be produced by pure chance.
Further analysis also suggests that only considering the systems won by EDENCOM, they were more likely to build a Fortress in Amarr space than in other empires, although case numbers are too low to make a firm determination.
This report does not seek to provide an explanation of the differences in the outcomes. The two most prominent theories at the moment seem to be
- That the Amarr navy is just better (or at least more suited to fighting Triglavians) then the other empires navies.
- EDENCOM itself is biased in its defensive efforts towards the Amarr for personal or political reasons.
In any case, these numbers show that while EDENCOM can claim to win most battles overall, its defense seems to have some quite defined weaknesses, especially across the Caldari State and the Collective can claim a huge impact there.
I will provide further updates on the situation if there are significant changes or new data that warrant an adjustment of the analysis.