Analysis of Invasion Outcomes (Empire based differences AND Balance-of-Power-Hypothesis of Liminality)

Dear Capsuleers,

In acknowledgement of the recent debates throughout the IGS, media coverage and debate in the wider interested society I have taken the liberty to compile the data on the results of the fighting between EDENCOM and Triglavian forces in the space of the different empires and run some basic analysis. These findings are preliminary and based just on the outcomes of all battles to date. Final results may change as the sides change their tactics.

Edit / Addendum: As our work has lead to another, maybe more interesting finding in the Balance-of-Power-Hypothesis of Liminality, I will link it here for more visibility:

Different Outcomes of EDENCOM/Triglavian battles in different empires

I also want to thank Elsebeth Rhiannon for providing some additional analysis via the open scientific comms network of ARC.

A. Core Finding:

Given the outcomes of battles in the space of the four empires, we can see a great disparity of outcomes that cannot be explained by chance alone. From the four empires, the Amarr are overperforming the most, while the Caldari are falling behind the curve.

B. Explanation of used data:

The database used as source of the outcome-data is the Kybernaut-provided Interface here: https://kybernaut.space/invasions The data used in this preliminary report was compiled on 21:00, 22/06/122.

For the analysis, only data of systems that have reached a stable state after Triglavian activities were considered.

Not considered were:

  • Systems that were still in an unstable phase (Stellar Reconnaissance, Redoubts, Bulwarks, First and Second Liminality).
  • Systems where the forces skirmished and mutually retreated without any side gaining a stable presence.

The total number of cases was 48.

C. Outcome distributions:

C1. System distribution by Empire

First we can look at the number of systems of each empire that have seen a Triglavian presence. EDENCOM and the empires probably have no control over this. While it seems like the Triglavians are attacking the Amarr Empire more often than others, comparing the systems with a random distribution throughout all of low- and high-sec there seems to be no major deviation. In that way, the amount of Amarr systems under attack is a result of them claiming an comparably larger amount of space.


(Amarr: 25, Gallente: 10, Minmatar: 4, Caldari: 9)

C2. Outcome distribution overall

Looking at the general distribution of outcomes across all systems we see 19 EDENCOM Fortresses, 13 Minor EDENCOM Victories, 12 Minor Triglavian Victories and 4 Final Liminalities. I will let the readers make their own judgement of the benchmarks both sides would need to fulfill to consider their results “good” or “bad”.


Slightly more generalized, 32 systems with a firm conclusion were won by EDENCOM, 16 by the Triglavian Collective (basically a perfect 2 to 1 split).

C3. Outcome distribution by empire

Having established the other distributions, I finally looked at the outcome distribution of the battles in relation to the empires space they were fought in. I’ll let the graphic speak for itself first:


What we can clearly see is that the results of triglavian activities are very different across the empires. While systems under Amarr sovereignty could resist the Triglavians in 92% of cases, Gallente space had a EDENCOM-victory-quote of 60% and Minmatar space 50%. The Collective had the most success in Caldari space, where EDENCOM could only secure a single victory in Samanuni (11% of cases). Basis statistic analysis suggests that these results are highly unlikely to be produced by pure chance.

Further analysis also suggests that only considering the systems won by EDENCOM, they were more likely to build a Fortress in Amarr space than in other empires, although case numbers are too low to make a firm determination.

D. Conclusions

This report does not seek to provide an explanation of the differences in the outcomes. The two most prominent theories at the moment seem to be

  • That the Amarr navy is just better (or at least more suited to fighting Triglavians) then the other empires navies.
  • EDENCOM itself is biased in its defensive efforts towards the Amarr for personal or political reasons.

In any case, these numbers show that while EDENCOM can claim to win most battles overall, its defense seems to have some quite defined weaknesses, especially across the Caldari State and the Collective can claim a huge impact there.

I will provide further updates on the situation if there are significant changes or new data that warrant an adjustment of the analysis.

Signed digitally,
Scius Falkenhaupt
Kybernaut Researcher

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First of all, thank you for your research. It is pleasant to the eyes to see people trying to make something out of our current puzzle.

While the report does not seek to provide explanations for the outcomes, a little food for thought.

Reports from the IGS seem to indicate that if left to themselves, ENDECOM+Faction Navies tend to get victories against the Triglavians.

A variable unnacounted for is Capsuleer interference.

If victories seem to be in favour of ENDECOM, than for Triglavians to win requires that they need Capsuleer support in bigger numbers than the Status Quo.

  • Are Caldari capsuleers more inclined to favour the Triglavians?
  • Are the Gallente capsuleers helping the Triglavians to hinder Caldari defense efforts?
  • Does the cluster just want to screw Caldari?

Same reasoning may apply to the Amarr results.

  • Is the Amarr fanclub more numerous/efficient at organizing?
  • Are the Minmatar occupied with their own stuff or not cooperative to the Triglavians?
  • Does the cluster want to help the Amarr?

Disregarding the reasons for Capsuleers to do what they are doing, one thing that appear to be congruent is CONCORD and ENDECOM frustration with Capsuleers interference. If It weren’t for you meddling kids, we would’ve dealt with it, they may be thinking.

There have been questions about why they do not simply cut the capsuleer little wings and punish them, and at the same time questions as to why they do not grant permission for capsuleer capital support at the battlefield, and the questions raised above may help understand their reasoning, at least of what is within their power to implement, for they are not almighty and we have less and less strings every year that passes.

Keep up the good work and good data coming.

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There are differences between how the navies are equipped, and also the local pirates. Theoretically Edencom ships have a slight advantage over Triglavian ships but it is slight. It means that Triglavians could well be at a disadvantage in certain areas and even in particular systems. Both Edencom and Triglavian forces seem to match each other very well, which is partly to sustain resources.

Individual systems have particular characteristics, as I discussed elsewhere, this might well be a factor. We know this has an effect on how far the Triglavians will progress their assault but does it also have an effect on how strong that assault is ? Maybe they throw extra resources at more desirable systems, or less at those they do not really want ?

The other factor worth considering is capsuleer response, both Amarr and Minmatar have more active and experienced pro Edencom capsuleers than other areas. I’m guessing but it seems that a lot of the pro Triglavian pilots are based more towards Caldari space. Since those are more active it could account for Gallente invasions being slightly more successful. It is closer to Caldari space and more distant from the Minmatar and Amarr groups.

There may be a contact of mine that could help with how to present the data. That might be the answer in how the data is examined and presented.

Regards … Annisir.

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You’re welcome.

They do - in Amarr space. Caldari systems tend to go to Triglavians, and of the recorded three withdrawals two were in Minmatar space, quite a disproportionate number.

As the Amarr Empire is so much bigger, this results in an overall apparent bias in Edencom favor, but the underlying phenomenon there too is the better defense of Amarr systems.

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:red_circle: Red dot sponored by Concord.

I fully support this claim. I have been in a few Amarr (Sasta, Halibai and Sasiekko) and Caldari (Sakenta, Kulelen and Piekura) invasions so far. Amarr navy manage with relative ease to destroy a Trig roaming spawn without major losses. Caldari Navy, on the other hand cannot even destroy a single Trig ship by the time they have lost the majority of their fleet.

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Thank you for the information.

In a situation where there is an unequal capacity of response but there is an equal distribution of ENDECOM resources, then someone will get the pointy end of the stick.

If ENDECOM is aware of the different navies technological limitations against the Triglavians and still maintain an equal response to all factions, not only they would be favouring Amarr (that has better defenses), but they would be throwing the Caldari (least effective against Triglavians) under the bus by omission!

All this before accounting for capsuleer support and their militia allegiance/effectiveness.

:astonished:

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EDENCOM has their own agenda in this war.

As CONCORD is a part of it, they could have easily marked triglav-aligned capsuleers as criminals permanently with appropriate response by CONCORD forces in high security systems. Instead they hesitate to do that, stalling the war.

I won’t be talking about EDENCOM preferences in who they defend while we don’t have solid evidence, but there still is one other issue : numerous cynosural field jammers around the low security systemes, that hamper the movement of the goods and navies alike.

My bet is all the fortresses are meant to be points of force projection and EDENCOM stalls the war to create as much of them around the cluster as they possibly could.

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Ultimately, this means the other empires, most notably the Caldari, need to step it up.

Given their smaller size, I’m sure it’s harder to for them to make the same contribution to EDENCOM that the Amarr Empire does, but surely they wish to defend their own territories better than they have until now?

This also leads me to applaud the Matari who, given their relatively small navy, still manage far better results than the Caldari, in whom I’m somewhat disappointed. Surely some of that Jita money could be used to protect the space that is the basis for their, at this time, strong market.

Of course, ideally, forces put under EDENCOM temporary command would form fleets consisting of ships from each empire, ideological differences suspended, and finding ways where their combined strategies and tactics could give them a synergistic advantage.

But, even if opposing political groups could be motivated to fully work together, I see no way of doing so in a fair and equal manner as long as the Imperial Navy makes up more than 50% of the total EDENCOM forces. Though, if the Caldari don’t improve their doctrine anytime soon, that might just be for the better.

As it stands, the empires that have traditionally been most opposed to us would seem like the best allies to have in this fight and it makes me glad that the relations between us and these empires has improved enough over the past decades to where initiatives like EDENCOM can succeed. I pray these relations can be improved further, and that Amarr may one day call the Gallente Federation and the Minmatar Republic, as unlikely as it may seem now, their allies.

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Dear Capsuleers,

I think I have something more interesting to present. In the course of the studies of Elsebeth Rhiannon and I we have come up with a hypothesis that offers an alternative (and most importantly: simpler and better fitting) explanation of why some systems proceed to Liminality and some do not. It is quite a bit simpler than the highly complex star- and system-analysis that ARC and other researchers have relied on previously but fits the data quite well:

The Balance-Of-Power-Hypothesis of Liminality (BOPL)

In my view, the scientific community has, in its heretofore taken views on the circumstances of the Triglavians achieving Liminality in a given system overfocused on the astronometric side. This is not surprising in that the astronometric school was heavily involved from an early point with stellar observation being an important matter and their work receiving widespread recognition.

I do not want to say that this analysis is wrong, but I think it has so far been blind to certain other factors contributing to Liminality. Namely, the balance of power between Triglavian forces and EDENCOM as expressed through the amount of so called “Minor Victories” (that may be misnamed if my theory is correct) each side has accumulated.

This narrow focus on astrometric observation with disregard to strategic considerations has also lead to wrong conclusion in so far as the scientists tried to fit outcomes on star-types that were not produced by star-types in the first place.

Instead, I propose that for a system to proceed into liminality, two conditions need to be met:

(A) The Star-Type needs to be suitable to Liminal Transmutation (Immanence: Gold or Immanence Glory) - Local factor.

(B) The Triglavian Collective needs to have a relatively secure strategic position across the cluster (e.g. there are at least as many Triglavian Minor Victories as there are EDENCOM ones) - Global factor.

Data based evidence
This fits with the data currently available.


(X Axis: Difference between EDENCOM and Triglavian Minor Victories, Y axis: results of Triglavian victory in recon; Credit for chart Sky Seolec and Elsebeth Rhiannon)

Other evidence
It also grants further credence to two other factors previously observed:

(1) The EDENCOM strategy of “Defense in depth” that is ostensibly based on denying the Triglavian foothold systems to “live of the land”-tactics. Given the assumption that Triglavians need Minor Victory systems as footholds to create the conditions for Liminal progress, this EDENCOM strategy suddenly seems much more sensible and logical then before. I guess they based it on deeper understanding of Triglavian strategy then is publicly available.

(2) The failure of some stars to progress to Liminality then astrometric theories. For example, take the system of Carrou. This was basically a shoe-in for Liminality with extremely high scores on all predictors. It failed to proceed to Liminality.

The scientific community answered by adding more factors into the fitting of the predictors. This was probably a wrong conclusion. I think we can find a much simpler astrometric predictor by exclusing failed liminalities that failed while Triglavian forces were unable to proceed the Star. In such, we arrive at a simpler, more straightforward astrometric solution AND a much simpler overall explanation of Liminality.

Further research
If this theory proves to be correct, we also will need to re-simplify the astronometric models by disregarding Stars not proceeding to Liminality if the BOPL-Condition was not fulfilled. Also, further research is needed to the explanation why triglavian need the balance of power to proceed their operations and what EDENCOM knows about it. This may also inform further research into the process itself and strategic decisions taken by the sides.

Digitally signed,
Scius Falkenhaupt
Kybernaut Researcher

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It’s probably just the tracking disruptors screwing up the Triggies wibblywoo entropy gun, preventing it firing at full effect, rather than any real conspiracy.
It does also seem the Federation Navy is fairly effective. Their sensor dampeners would break the Triggies locks. Though perhaps the Federation Navy preference for blasters is less helpful. Rails may be a better choice coupled with the sensor dampeners.

Perhaps EDENCOM should examine the E-war suite of the vessels tasked for anti Trig operations.

I’m not sure of the Republic Fleet capabilities, though they may wish to favour artillery over autocannon in future.

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Can it be quantified though? That is probably the big question. Artillery has been really successful in terms of a high alpha strike to punch through logi pressure.

Why are the Caldari State ships failing so badly?

The Caldari ships used to defend the Edencom systems are pathetically tanked against EM, which is being maximized by the Kybernaut tactics. They really are not challenged punching through 0% shield resists.

Until the Caldari fill this massive weakness there will be no serious deterrent to Triglavian victories in Caldari space.

A couple of examples (none of the Caldari ships have EM shield resistance whatsoever)
image
image

On further analysis, it appears that even the T2 ships deployed are lesser than the T2 hulls available to capsuleers:
image

Does the Caldari State not take the threat seriously enough to send proper ships to defend?
What is with the damage profiles for the offensive systems as well? I would expect Kin/Therm.

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How well do your results filter for capsuleer/kybernaut activity?

More, how well do your results filter for Triglavian action? We know EDENCOM and local navies have attempted to defend each and every system the Triglavians actually sortied into. How many of those EDENCOM Fortresses saw any notable Triglavian sorties?

When measuring the success and failure of forces in a conflict, including the successful defense of places that have not been attacked can only skew the results.

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The data does not account for activity or events in space.

What this kind of data can show is that there, with a great likelihood, is a significant difference. It cannot say why that difference exists, but rather invites for researchers to come up with hypotheses that can then be falsified with or supported by other data.

Sortie activity and shield resistance parameters are examples of such hypotheses, as is the prevalence of particular minerals that was mentioned elsewhere.

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There is an additional factor: God.

I can only hope that this is an opportunity for our Caldari allies to witness God’s salvation. Their heavy losses when it comes to system is none other than a trial put forth by God, and it is through worship that their systems will be saved.

Well, that’s… a hypothesis, too.

Amen. I pray for their souls, that they may find His Guiding Light. If nothing else, they can at least take example from the devout Imperial Navy.