as the state of the Caldari nvay vis-à-vis the Triglavians has come under heavy criticism and the subject of controversy over the last few days, I thought it may be a good idea to take a more organized look at the state of the Triglavian activities in Caldari space. Again, I will not speculate on the reasons for certain decisions or outcomes and just present the data for the readers interpretation.
1. Early phase of liminal proving
In the early phase of the current pattern of Triglavian activity, the State managed to find their so far only victory for the EDENCOM forces in the system of Samanuni which was built up into an EDENCOM fortress. But even then there was already a certain pattern of Triglavian dominance with Collective forces achieving minor victories in the systems of Inaya, Vaajaita and Hikokken. But at this point most attention was focused on the liminalities in Raravoss and Vale and as such, minor triglavian successes were not at the center of attention. Furthermore, EDENCOM could claim that they had achieved a lot more victories then the Triglavian forces and probably weren’t keen on discussing underlying patterns.
(Further reading on these disparities can be found in my analysis here, even though the data was taken at a later date: Analysis of Invasion Outcomes (Empire based differences AND Balance-of-Power-Hypothesis of Liminality) )
2. Double Liminality Event
The major inflection point on activities of EDENCOM and the Caldari State Navy in their defense of State territory came on the 14th and 15th of June with two systems reaching final Liminality in rapid succession. On the 14th, the system of Sakenta reached final liminality. In addition to being in the heart of the States territory, it is also only 2 jumps from the major capsuleer tradehub of Jita. While it is a dead-end-system, there are worries about the effect on trade security going forward.
On the 15th, the system of Nalvula entered Final Liminality, the first to do in Low-Security space. Both systems also fell rather rapidly, with neither of them taking more then barely two days from the appearance of Triglavian forces until final Liminality. These events lead to civil unrest and widespread mobilization on the side of the Caldari forces as described in the Worldnews here: https://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/world-news/galactic-hour-news-roundup-triglavian-conquests-and-edencom-fortresses-edition/ and here: https://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/world-news/galactic-hour-news-roundup-gallente-federation-day-yc122-edition/
3. Further Triglavian Victories
The grand announcements of resistance and mobilization were however not met with success in the further conflict. While there was a brief pause for Triglavian activities within Caldari space after the two Liminalities, maybe to regroup and secure those systems, once the Triglavian presence returned, the outcomes were arguably wose then before.
While I do not wish to speculate, there may have been morale effects for both sides and I can report a high motivation from Pro-Triglavian circles towards the prospect of State targets under the assumption that they are seen as ‘softer’ targets compared to other empires that can be secured with comparatively less resources.
Triglavian Minor victories were achieved nearly daily in the aftermath: Obe on the 18th of June, Kulelen and Piekura on the 20th, Nonni and Akora on the 22nd, Pakkonen on the 24th and Taisy on the 25th. Triglavians have as such established a stable space presence in many Caldarian systems.
And while the Minor Victories did not gather cluster-wide attention, some of them were in important systems, which is notable. Two examples I want to provide with special attentions are Nonni. This system is the Home system for one of the “Big 8” megacorporations, Kaalakiota. Triglavians having a high freedom of movement in that system may have tactical consequences in addition to the morale damage to the citizens of that corporation.
Wider concern was reported throughout capsuleer circles about the capture of Taisy, which is home to the infamous Kyonoke pit. While I personally do not think that Triglavians have any need (or propensity to use) biological weaponry, others have suggested that it was a priority to defend and criticized the failure to do so. (Further reading: https://community.eveonline.com/backstory/chronicles/kyonoke-pit/ )
4. Fall of Arvasaras
The current situation reached another inflection point on the 27th of June when the system of Arvasaras, one Constellation removed from Nalvula, entered final Liminality. With 3 systems in Final Liminality, the Caldari account now for over half of the Final Liminalities in the New Eden cluster. (And, if Harva escalates to a Final Liminality, then they still account for half of them.)
With the minor victory in Talsy there is now also the first case of a Gate with considerable triglavian presence at both sides of the connection (Nalvula-Talsy gate) and
In addition, there are currently Triglavian and five systems with Triglavian activity in close proximity (obe, Vaajaita, Arvasaras in addition to these two). It will be interesting to see if the triglavians will try to fortify these constellations further. Currently there are recon-forces in Uchoshi, a system in The forge that shares a constellation with Obe. This leads me to the second part of this small brief:
I have taken Tactical Map data for Caldari regions from public providers and added the current state of triglavian invasions into them. Only systems with a stable outcome are marked. A single Triangle marks a minor triglavian vitory, three Triangley a Final Liminality. A simple square would demarcate a minor EDENCOM victory, if there was one and a square with added battlements marks an EDENCOM Fortress.
I may follow this up with further analysis at a later date, but I will not make any promises as I have been quite taxed with different priorities over the last few days and still haven’t come back to some of the open conversations where I had promised to do so, for which I again apologize.