And so it begins. The Tech 2 market chaos

Several weeks with little to no moongoo flow are coming, and lots of market folks have been discussing the future price of goo. Everyone knew it was going up, but didn’t agree how much.

What noone was talking about in public was the consequences for T2 modules and ships, which are largely built of moongoo. This post is only about the modules - I’m not sure how elastic the demand for T2 ships is, and did not want to take big risks to find out.

I watched and waited as prices held mostly steady on the high turnover T2 modules. I watched as stockpiles dwindled and producers exited the market seeking higher margins.

I hypothesized that people don’t really skimp on T2 modules. If you can fly a T2 fit, you probably have enough ISK to not care much whether you are spending 2.2 million on a shield module, or 3 million. You would be unlikely to downgrade from either to a 600k meta module because of that price rise, nor would you be likely to upgrade to a much more expensive faction or deadspace module.

So I tested my theory on one of the highest turnover T2 items in the game. One I predicted would have an even more inelastic demand curve than most - a tanking module.

I bought up all the Adaptive Invulnerability Field II on the market in Jita, and relisted them all at 40-50% above the old stable price. I set up about 7 small quantity buy orders in a bidding war with each other. The new price held, big buy orders from other people outbid my shill orders and kept outbidding as I raised them further, and I sold my stock at considerable profit within a few hours. Later I realised my mistake - I’d gotten out of the market too early.

Next, I hit 1600mm Steel Plates II - a smaller market, but still a high turnover item and one that people are reluctant to make budget substitutes for. Bought them out at 2600k, sold most of my stock at 3400-3800k, a 40% markup in hours. I still have hundreds in stock, but even without ever selling them I have recovered every cent of ISK spent.

My next target was Warp Scrambler II. These have not paid off yet, and it’s possible I’ll end up taking a small loss as there are bigger stockpiles of this module than I had expected. There is clear demand for the module at the new price (I’ve been trying to force 2270k) but also a lot of competition from other sellers.

Other people have had the same idea. Even after I hit Adaptive Invulnerability Field, someone else hit it again in the last few hours, pushing the price from the 3100-3300k I sold out at, up to an unprecedented 3800k. This might not hold, but it’s possible that it will. I’m now confident enough in this item that I have a thousand unit buy order up over 2700k.

Another person tried to hit Light Neutron Blaster II and Neutron Blaster Cannon II, but may have been caught by surprise at the size of my personal stockpile.

Bump yourselves in, folks. The cat is out of the bag and it’s going to be a wild ride for tech 2 prices as purchases become driven by the fear of missing out.


It’s all artificial, the question is who is going to be the cat holding that bag when the market normalizes.

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oh, there is no way I’ll hold any of this stuff more than a week or three.

But for that time - it’s real. The stuff is just much more expensive to build than usual right now.

The people that get burned will be the T2 producers that buy materials at present prices, and wind up selling into more typical equilibrium prices. I will be stopping almost all my T2 production for the next weeks, because that is the bag I do not want to be holding.

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Ha! I just wanted to ask the tin-foil speculators here the same thing. I knew there was a “time-out” of moon-poo when the patch comes and when I did a few price checks in Amarr, I was so baffled about the raises in price tags that I ended up not wanting to buy anything.

So to all tin-foil speculators, will there be a time when one can afford to buy t2 mods again?

And Sabriz, I would. I am paying those overpriced prices. It just drives me away from TQ entirely. You want content?

Let your “content” be able to afford stuff or there will be only contempt.

I don’t play to make things affordable.

The only tech 2 items I would say are mandatory to use if you can use them are weapon modules. As far as everything else goes meta modules work just fine and even use less cap. As far as prices go what your seeing is mostly speculation along with a few people stocking up for the next couple weeks. Most manufactures have a huge stockpiles of raw and produced goods. You see this all the time when an item becomes more expensive to produce but the price doesn’t rise immediately because all the players who had hordes of the item continue to under cut each other. In a few weeks prices will be back to normal and there will be countless speculators left holding the bag. In the meantime use meta modules or venture out of the main trade hubs to buy your goods. There are countless places all of new eden stocked with any module you would need for pvp for only a small market up over what normal jita prices would be.

The good meta items do not exist in sufficient quantities to replace T2 demand for even a couple weeks.

As for the budget substitute ones, yep they exist in big-ish numbers. There are no shortage to the number of alternatives with lesser performance available cheap (including just using the tech 1 version).

I think even a total rookie can afford the ultimate substitutes to T2 items, T1 items, just fine. As for luxuries beyond that - I don’t really care either way.

It’s not like this was hard to see coming.

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Saying that the good meta items don’t exist in large enough quantities I feel is false. As an avid solo/small gang pvper I can tell you straight up that meta items are often used over T2 items when it comes to solo/small gang. And we don’t ever seem to be burning through the supply. As for those big bull sec alliences I’m pretty sure they are prepared. Also in the end we are talking about a very short hiccup in production. If it wasn’t for market speculators I highly doubt we would even see the price move.

The few meta items that are commonly considered better than tech 2 are already much more expensive than the tech 2 version.

Case in point, meta 4 light neutron blaster (Modal Light Neutron Blaster I). Not sure re Jita, but Dodi sell price is 1860k. T2 is spiked to 850k but usually 660k.

Pre Tiericide this was true of scrams (Faint Epsilon was usually 3000 k, T2 1300k), sensor damps (Phased Muon was 1700k usually, t2 1000k) and especially damage controls.

Having tried to source meta 2 and 3 blasters for CODE, even just getting a thousand was a nightmare. When I ran a learn to gank event, I gave up and just built 10000 tech 1 ones.

this might be the first time i make some decent cash off a patch speculation

i chucked 90% of my (small amount) of isk at buying stuff for t2 production. if i sell it all today, i double my isk

large investors are gonna make lots

… isn’t a pit. It’ a ladder.

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Raw moon goo hasn’t spiked as much as I had hoped. One thing is for sure. There will be from tomorrow less raw moon goo in the game period. Not every r64 will be mined to its potential, same for the r32s. The likes of delve unless they are insane will keep the goo in house and force a monopoly as to be fair they will be the ones mining moons to the full potential. Especially as they are making moons free for all, cashing in on refining rather than selling the belts.

Think some of the bigger alliances are boo busy with a war in the east to be fully preparing for patch day.

Then we will have weeks of a bottle neck in supply of goo / t2 materials. Regions all to be re scanned, the refineries to be built, BPOs to be researched. Look at the price of the first astrahaus and fortizars at first! I wouldn’t be surprised to see dyspro hit 100k, technetium maybe 15k.
Long term the moon minerals / mining prices will have to reflect the effort to mine it, afterall why mine moon goo in a hulk when anoms in a rorq or carrier ratting makes more. From what i understand a 100km long belt isnt as viable for rorquals due to travel time and pings and hulks will be preferred.

Think the market has a lot of fuckery left yet anyway. ( i hope as I have also invested in a few things)

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So far nothing much has happened. People are still dumping their reserves of t2 hulls and modules at the normal price. I got 8 Huginns for 1.6 mil, you can have all 16 for 3 bil.

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That’s interesting. I keep selling lots of things at 140-160% of what was fair market price just a week ago.

Only five billion in sales today, but I’m fine with that.

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I think that just observing the moon material price gives information on T2 market.

I use Ark build cost as an index. At now I don’t see prices increasing so fast and so high.

It is fluctuating between 10% to 30%.

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I already dumped all my stocks at roughly 10% over (after broker fee/tax it breaks even) I’m not gonna be holding the bag on this bubble implosion.

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Same. I’m not panic selling my tech two stock but I am aggressively moving it.

I’ll probably be stuck holding a few billion worth.

How did the speculation plays end up working out @Sabriz_Adoudel ?