Several weeks with little to no moongoo flow are coming, and lots of market folks have been discussing the future price of goo. Everyone knew it was going up, but didn’t agree how much.
What noone was talking about in public was the consequences for T2 modules and ships, which are largely built of moongoo. This post is only about the modules - I’m not sure how elastic the demand for T2 ships is, and did not want to take big risks to find out.
I watched and waited as prices held mostly steady on the high turnover T2 modules. I watched as stockpiles dwindled and producers exited the market seeking higher margins.
I hypothesized that people don’t really skimp on T2 modules. If you can fly a T2 fit, you probably have enough ISK to not care much whether you are spending 2.2 million on a shield module, or 3 million. You would be unlikely to downgrade from either to a 600k meta module because of that price rise, nor would you be likely to upgrade to a much more expensive faction or deadspace module.
So I tested my theory on one of the highest turnover T2 items in the game. One I predicted would have an even more inelastic demand curve than most - a tanking module.
I bought up all the Adaptive Invulnerability Field II on the market in Jita, and relisted them all at 40-50% above the old stable price. I set up about 7 small quantity buy orders in a bidding war with each other. The new price held, big buy orders from other people outbid my shill orders and kept outbidding as I raised them further, and I sold my stock at considerable profit within a few hours. Later I realised my mistake - I’d gotten out of the market too early.
Next, I hit 1600mm Steel Plates II - a smaller market, but still a high turnover item and one that people are reluctant to make budget substitutes for. Bought them out at 2600k, sold most of my stock at 3400-3800k, a 40% markup in hours. I still have hundreds in stock, but even without ever selling them I have recovered every cent of ISK spent.
My next target was Warp Scrambler II. These have not paid off yet, and it’s possible I’ll end up taking a small loss as there are bigger stockpiles of this module than I had expected. There is clear demand for the module at the new price (I’ve been trying to force 2270k) but also a lot of competition from other sellers.
Other people have had the same idea. Even after I hit Adaptive Invulnerability Field, someone else hit it again in the last few hours, pushing the price from the 3100-3300k I sold out at, up to an unprecedented 3800k. This might not hold, but it’s possible that it will. I’m now confident enough in this item that I have a thousand unit buy order up over 2700k.
Another person tried to hit Light Neutron Blaster II and Neutron Blaster Cannon II, but may have been caught by surprise at the size of my personal stockpile.
Bump yourselves in, folks. The cat is out of the bag and it’s going to be a wild ride for tech 2 prices as purchases become driven by the fear of missing out.