Correct. They will just optimize their formulas and keep going. If CCP wants to stop the botters they need to do more then this…
…which means they are doing this for other reasons or they are incapable of doing more (staff).
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These changes will help with price discovery.
The meta forever has been 0.01 ISKing your opponent to get on top, with no real trade-off of being forced to significantly move your offer and aiding price discovery. Markets in Eve, especially the more thinly traded ones, do not readily find the “real” equilibrium point where buyers and sellers agree on a price, but rather get bogged down in traders (both bots, and bot-aspirants) just updated their order every 5 minutes to skim the spread.
This maybe a mini-game of a sort, but isn’t an efficient market.
The reality is an efficient market and the opportunities for profit for traders kinda are at odds. There will always be arbitrage opportunities over space and time, but just skimming a percent of the spread by continually updating orders in one station isn’t really trading nor bring much value to the market other than some small amount of liquidity.
Anything that aids price discovery is going to hurt single-station traders.
Aside from the margin trading deletion which may, or may not, have a big impact on liquidity depending on how many orders are currently backed by this, these changes are good for the market. Forcing traders to consider each order and action more, weighing the costs and benefits of choosing a price and updating an order will bring some real gameplay back to the markets.
Maybe they aren’t exactly perfect in this first iteration, but the idea of encouraging more rapid price discovery, and putting a cost on jumping to the top of the order book are good ones. Like all changes they will mix up the metagame and hurt some players and help some players, but in total, should make for a more interesting and efficient market.
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The problem is, 0.01 ISKing is easy to implement, while your proposed strategy requires an extended analysis of the market to determine right constants. And resulting strategy would not rely on being online 23/7, that can be guaranteed.
Proposed changes disincentivise people from posting market orders at all, especially the buy orders. Have fun with reduced liquidity and converging on price discovery with only sell orders remaining.
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Current bot:
- Check current market price
- Find existing big buy/sell order
- Modify to a price -/+ 0.01
New bot:
- Check current market price
- Post micro order at -/+ 0.01
- Repost new order as soon as previous is fulfilled
Where do You see an extended analysis?
1 Like
You could just go back to running incursions?
that would force me to go to hisec or lowsec, i like living in nullsec
Lol no. It might be a deterrant for some traders. But those dont count. From economic perspective those dont bring anything to the table. Most buy orders are either used by people who produce (those will still used them) and by traders. While producers buy ressources to produce products the trader just lowballs buy orders to turn a profit in case someone dumbs a something way to cheap on the market. The later doesnt really benefit anyone except the trader, so there is not much lost. And of course if less people post buy orders, posting ypur buy orders is more profitable. Your logic doesnt work at all.
To suggest those lowball buy orders have anything to do with price discovery is just ridicilous.
You will lose money with the new version
That is not what you described the first time.
The bot you described now would become stuck pretty fast - as soon as the price goes down.
Changing orders by 0.01 ISK is certainly one of the common strategies, but in more actively-traded items it’s not as useful. There is a more varied and dynamic range of pricing strategies in these submarkets that does help with price discovery. However, limiting order prices to 4 significant digits does NOT help with price discovery at all except perhaps in a few items. Such artificial pricing constraints are an overly blunt instrument because they reduce pricing flexibility too much in item submarkets that may have more stable pricing than other submarkets and/or tighter spreads. Mineral prices, for example, have typically been more stable (though this is not true right now since CCP is intentionally disrupting the game’s mining mechanisms), and they often have spreads so tight that they cannot be readily traded by flippers, i.e., station traders.
The relisting fee’s biggest impact will likely be to scare station traders out of a number of submarkets due to the difficulty of picking the “right” price at the time of initial order placement in an item that already has a tight bid-ask spread. If the spreads widen enough after such an initial scare, some may creep back in, but not without a negative impact on market liquidity both before and after such a reaction.
Reducing liquidity does not help casual market participants. If you want to see what happens to pricing when too-few station traders are present, just try comparing bid-ask spreads across a fair number of items between Jita and Hek or Rens. Some items in the latter may still have relatively narrow spreads, but in general they expand a lot due to lack of competition and the inventory/liquidity risk that buyers will incur if they are station trading. It’s usually a lot more expensive to buy a fully-fitted ship in Hek or Rens than in Jita. That’s the difference that a highly active station trading community makes.
This will totally depend on how many people use the margin trading skill and how much of the market is dominated by bots/bot-aspirants.
Those graphs in the devblog suggest the amount of high-frequency and margin trading going on is much less than the trader who does it as a primary activity thinks. Just because you do that, doesn’t mean that is representative of how most trades are done by the playerbase as a whole.
I guess we’ll all get to see how this shakes out. The Eve market continually surprises me with how resilient it is. I’m not especially concerned that the market itself is in danger, and I fully expect CCP to rapidly step in and revert some of this if there is some catastrophe starting because of these changes.
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Where’s graphs? Single numbers don’t tell the story.
Actually they do count. You seem to have this idea that people who buy products to build things should not also aim for a good margin, nor relist orders to keep parts flowing in, and products flowing out. Essentially people who do production are not much different than the traders you suggest do not count, and many of us take part in both activities side by side.
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Those buy orders that a made to buy some stuff very cheap are something else then buy orders to buy ressources. For the second there is competition, those wont vansish since people wont stop to produce things
Are you really trying to push individuals and small corps out of Eve, I would have thought we pay more subs for fees rather than plexing. It started with pushing us out of the capital game by putting 300 mill at risk every time we light a cyno now this (why not have made a cheap cyno boat that everyone would recognise) . Seriously I feel an unsub coming next renewal.
Is the new CEO on Meth or what ?
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If you wanna get rid of the bots, there is ten million other ways other than changing free market into communist heaven, Lets introduce picture based verification when modyfying order for example, or something like that. The fact of the matter is:
this changes are forced by crybabies who are trying to margin trade, but does not have time and knowlege to do so, well there is another approach- if you not wery good at it, do something else like mining or mission running and let others play their game.
Lol except they have nerfed mining as well lol.
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Sure. As I said, this will help price discovery of the more thinly traded items.
These changes don’t affect the very actively trained items that much. The ebb-and-flow of the market means reasonably priced orders will be cleared quickly with no need of updating nor 0.01 ISKing. And there is plenty of liquidity there, at least at the trade hubs.
This will help the market reach equilibrium faster for all those items outside the few hundred that are already pretty efficiently moved by the market.
Indeed. This is a concern. But it all depends on how traders will react and how much they are operating on margin now compared to the total market, information only CCP has. I can only hoped they checked and decided that the amount of liquidity coming from the margin trading skill was only supporting the market in a minor way. Now, given this is modern CCP I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, but it seems probable and the market will adjust readily.
Traders are gonna trade. They will adapt to the new rules and fill in the opportunities if some of the old guard are too timid to operate under the new rule set, that just makes room for new entrants. How it all shakes up is open to speculation and there is uncertainty, but the goal is clear and the changes seem sound.
So don’t worry about “the children”. CCP will revert things if those casuals you claim concern for find the market unusable.
Show me actual difference other than simplification to help You with understanding.
Only if there is any actual other real player undercutting it. If he does that with small order then it will quickly become unstuck. If its undercut with big volume then it can always abandon that last micro order and keep undercutting with new ones. It still has the patience/agility advantage and much less risk/tax exposure than real human. Arguing about exact algorithm details does not change the fact that optimal algorithm exists and its just the matter of tuning details. Bots will keep their advantage over regular players. And this new market will be a nightmare to interact with.
There is no real difference between the 2. People compete for both, the only difference is 1 goes toward creating another product. And that second product requires very specific understanding of exactly how much it costs to build, and how much you sell it for. People do not simply buy up parts, make stuff and roll an easy profit. A lot of products require intense calculations to hit any profit margin at all. So throwing margins into question, and causing orders to stagnate for weeks at a time because you cannot update them, will cut into production for a lot of people. On top of that removing margin trading which means anyone producing must now have 4 or 5X the liquid isk on hand for the same work. The only produces likely not to feel the impact are those already making every single part for themselves, and acquiring every single raw material for themselves, and who already have massive wallets to begin with. New players looking to get into invention might as well hang it up now, Getting the momentum on production is going to hurt for them after the change than it does now.
Ill be able to make things, sure, Ill probably slow down on it also, since the tighter margin products are going to be far less appealing to deal with. And the new guys are going to be sitting around forever waiting for his shiny new parts order to fill so he can actually get around to building anything, while people with bigger wallets just spam more and more small orders above him.
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