Why?
Why?
Salvos, many of your positions about Eve are correct.
One is not. Asymmetric warfare is alive and well in Eve. Ask Bob members about what the goons did to them without a shot, or rather, one disgruntled Bob exec.
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As soon as they become the biggest power on the Earth?
I specifically mentioned economic, political and intelligence ops as forms of asymmetric warfare. I also specifically mentioned what Goons did to BoB. (Earlier in the thread)
The guy I was responding to was talking about armed asymmetric warfare, and is trying to compare how it is in EVE to what it is in an RTS.
That was true of dominion sov, without jump fatigue.
IMO a super fleet is an outcome caused by long term successful resourcing, and a natural method of storing excess reserve resources. IMO the perceived power is confounded with the resources used to build them.
Similar resources used to fuel an ongoing guerilla campaign (ie near infinite, quality subcap ship replacements for a full alliance of pilots willing to do the entosising it takes to hold a region), would certainly grind a region invasion to a halt as more systems get taken, they become exposed to counter attacks with weak defensive indexes, so the ability to be in more places matters more and more.
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Sorry, I missed that. So many diverting posts. I suppose ganking is an example of asymmetric economic warfare, especially in a real life cost. You can have any number of Alpha catalysts wipe out a high value freighter piloted by a high skill char and there is nothing the high skill char can do about it.
Imagine for a moment if CCP decided to do away with JF’s and actual supply lines back to Jita were needed. While thanks to CCP goons have gained self-sufficiency in Delve, if they want to export T2 raw materials, they have to move them. Now imagine swarms of Alpha catalysts interdicting those lines of communication. Goons would petition CCP to remove ganking so fast.
But then again, goons would use their own alpha alts to wipe out the other RMT cartels’ Jita bound exports, causing T2 products in high sec to explode in price. So nobody would win.
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Moon goo isn’t very large, and its now owned in smaller chunks by more people, which naturally makes it a class of item that can fly in blockade runners.
Incidently, nobody would like it if jumpfreighters were removed, but goons already live so far away from jita, that they are already used to rationed transport supply, and have evolved the strong local market to compensate.
As I live in a much smaller organisation, and I run 3 athanors, I’ve gone through the issue of what to do with the minerals that are a side effect of moon goo mining - I convert them to hulls and sell them on the local market (efficient enough, but volume is shaky).
I’ve also gone through the side issues of needing to seed the market with highslot fittings to make the hulls worth buying locally (ie ensure volume is sufficient). I decided to import some meta 4s, as well as invent/building t2s locally, but imo it becomes a lot of categories of things for one person to know about and deal with, which I doubt is efficient - and not hoops that a goon pilot with some athanors would feel they need to jump through.
tl;dr goon scale would win again.
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Well the imports and exports are pretty large. Granted part of that is due to ships going in and out. But still the last 4 months have had about 280 trillion in net import to Delve.
But yeah, Goons do have a significant market for a NS group. Delve is the third largest market in the game in terms of trade value.
Dinsdale’s other problem is he is assuming that the kind of opposition (swarms of Alphas in catalysts) would emerge and that they would focus on just Goons and that Goons would not adapt via things like OOC haulers. There are a number of assumptions there that strike me as overly strong. It is not unlike the following:
- Assume I win the lotto.
- Then I could…
No matter how brilliant number 2 sounds, it is predicated on an assumption that is questionable in terms of its likelihood.
Much of Dinsdale’s reasoning follows this kind of thnking.
A => B => C => D => E and E has some good/bad features. But several of links in that chain of logic are highly suspect.
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The first graph says whole server mines 1.5T daily and the all the non mined stuff (pi, salvage, melt etc) AND the refining, reacting and manufacturing transformations to make into usable goods equates to 4T daily production or ~120T a month.
Occams razor says misvalued object or object class in CCPs extractions. I don’t believe that the delve monthly trade deficit is 40%- 60% of total server production monthly.
Its notable that tribute (location of pandemic legion and NC) is the other location with a totally inexplicable (and just as large) trade deficit, which leads me to the bpc misvalued theory.
By design for the persona imo.
I personally think he is a strawman / provocateur type, and not a genuine forum actor.
Yes, but the elephants trunk and tail can swat at flies while the main body remains largely unaffected.
A couple major battles is all it will take to break divided opponents, either by reducing their cap+ capacity to where its no longer a significant threat, or they collapse internally due to frustration with losing.
Guerilla warfare is a lot more effort and difficult. Need a lot more FCs and motivated participants to run ops with little to no reward or glory, and more than just F1 monkeys en masse.
We dont know what Goons plans are.
I doubt they want another renter empire, or at least not as they had before.
As DP points out, they rationally wouldnt want to extinguish all of the rest of NS, just crush them far enough that they are no longer a credible threat.
They may just want to burn as many systems around Delve to the ground, or advance gradually by placing Keepstars to fortify/reinforce fronts, with Goons clone jumping in when/if necessary.
Hell, they might not expand at all, and just keep growing vertically in Delve. (Unlikely)
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Why? I would expect that, IMO. These guys live in their space. I mean they literally live there. Similarly with Goons. If they are like Goons my guess is they are under perpetual war dec. So trying to do stuff in HS is not a good idea. And if you are going to have alts and farm…where better to do it than in the one area of the game where you can make a crap ton of ISK and gather. And I bet they have their caps and super caps to help establish a safe sapce in which to do this. And Don’t forget they also have significant holdings in Tenal which have even better ratting grounds…And Tenal is fairly high of NPC bounties. And NC and PL are going to have very old, very wealthy characters…so their money making/production capabilities are going to be quite good, IMO.
And don’t forget that daily production counts what is produced that day. If I build a bunch of stuff and it doesn’t move to Delve till next month it would count in next months imports, but not in that months production numbers. Things like GDP are flow variables, but the stock of goods in the game would be…well a stock. So I don’t see a problem here either. Clearly production as exceeded destruction over time, so the stock of goods in game is going to be growing.
And keep in mind that stuff can move around ALOT in game. If somebody makes something in say Placid and then it is moved to Jita to be sold, then Kor-Azor to get to Delve/Fountain then it will move in/out of 8 regions. Each time the goods enter then leave a region the imports/exports, ideally, should cancel out.
Don’t get me wrong there is probably some measurement issue since exports and imports should be equal to each other but they aren’t.
Edit: Don’t know why I shifted to Branch vs. Tenal above…it was getting late and I was tired.
Meh, I think in Delves case, it really is just almost no export, or is small enough to be cancelled out.
(It would silly not to fill outgoing haulers with goods. Individual Goons still want bits and bobs from Jita etc, and to earn on stuff that doesnt have demand in Delve).
This is backed up by the local production figures.
Goons are using all their own stuff, and importing the rest.
We can see how much they gather and build locally. large scale imports of stuff should cause the building number to be insane.
No. its broken
I added up the goon yearly deficit according to the 12 monthly reports. It stands at 698973 B. Given that a significant proportion of goon players are actually in your own words, WORKING THEIR OWN REGION, they can’t possibily be out gathering 2700 keepstars worth of assets from other regions.
We can see what its growing by - because the MERs have the production, mining, bounty figures in them!
Yes there is a measurement issue. Its utterly broken. IMO whatever breaks it is bad enough that even direction of some trade surpluses/deficits will be wrong.
Why? I doubt there is much building of machariels down in Delve. Are Goons importing raw materials and intermediate goods or are they finished goods?
Uhhh…why not? Simply becuase it is a big number? Have you actually been to Delve and looked around? While they don’t have 2,700 Keepstars, it isn’t like the place is a wasteland.
I’m just curious…how do you think they are making an error? That CCP can’t query the database and add up the things moving into or out of a region?
And I have had a JF that is getting rather old. As it moved around from region to region it caused imports and exports to go up by 8 billion every time. The amount of goods in game is in the quadrillions at this point. And when somebody packs up stuff and moves some/all of it from one region to another, then exports go up for one region and imports go up for the new home region.
We dont know.
Probably a mix of all 3, leaning perhaps towards T3 materials and the rest Goon production in HS.
All we know is its going into Delve and not coming out.
Well knowing people who actually put stuff on contracts, they bought finished goods, put them together in terms of doctrine ships and popped them on contracts.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that imports do not include raw materials. At this point I’d be surprised if it wans’t all 3.
Thats where we come full circle, you and I, as to OP, and as to the point that I raised earlier and to which you agreed:
- We don’t know how much of that import value is generated by Goons themselves as added value from pre/full fabrication by Goons in HS before import.
- Furthermore, the amount of isk they actually paid out to non-Goons in HS, would not be directly apparent.
What we do know, is they are importing WAY above their export.
Thus stuff is flooding in, and not leaving.
Corroborating this with Delve production figures, clearly indicates that almost all of Delve resources, and X % of import, is being used domestically in production there (or in finished goods, which also are not exported afterwards).
Let me be clear, I am fking impressed by this.
The rest of the universe seriously needs to pay attention to this.
I’m just a mouthy mostly loner doing my whatever in EVE.
But those of you that have built something to lose, be afraid.
Goons are running at near optimum efficiency in Delve, and outstripping completely any other region/org for 6+months.
If you others don’t start doing the same, soon, Goons are going to build enough in Delve alone to wipe you all out, even combined. The grapevine reported Titan/Cap stats are already alarming, let alone how many Keepstars Goons may be ready to deploy to secure their advance.
Remove local from null sec, that will fix everything.
A mach is smaller as a blueprint + compressed ore. Supers have to be built in sov null, so the items have to be imported or mined there, and then they need to be built (turn up on the building stats). Only unresearched blueprint originals have a proper market cost.
because we know thousands of goons are inactive, and thousands more are actively making their money in delve.
if you make a conservative assumption that 10,000 such characters are external to delve (some in goons, some not) sending resources in, then those characters are on average sending more than 60b a year that is not just stored as cash, not used to plex accounts, but realized into external goods, and those goods are not subsequently leaving delve / getting blown up etc
On the flipside, some of the regions with permanent surplus exported don’t have the collected or manufactured resources to justify their permanent export value.
something that typically goes one way, has an incorrect valuation. example of something I send 1 way personally - blue print copies.
because its doubtful that transport hulls are going to delve and just stopping there. Even if one month a larger number arrived in delve than left, in some future month that is going to reverse. It hasn’t reversed for 12 months. The rate of expansion of numbers of jumpfreighters in delve is not 6000 of them a month!
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Those blueprints are all copies though, so you’d need to import quite a few of them. My guess (based on knowing guys who did supply doctrine ships) is that they are importing at least some ships.
And what goes on those super capitals? Blue and Purple modules which have very high values.
And there are lots of structures. I mean…lots.
You think it is all down to blue print copies? Being counted as what? Blue print originals?
If some of that export value is people moving into Delve…it won’t show up as a negative until some future month–i.e. we haven’t seen it yet.
Yeah, Goons haven’t been evicted yet.
I never said it was. However, I have managed to accumulated about 1.2 billion in doctrine ships in my hangar in Delve. Now, if 1,000 others have done the same thing then that is 1.2 trillion in ships being bought. And I am a Johnny come lately as well–i.e. I joined Amok. in March of last year. And I tend not to hold on to too many ships these days. In fact, some of the early import figures could be due to Goons moving in alot of their own assets. January and February have import numbers of 118 and 103 trillion respectively.