Correct.
So something happened in those spikes, that not only supplanted the underlying negative isk loss, but pushed it all the way past that, in net, to positive.
Correct.
So something happened in those spikes, that not only supplanted the underlying negative isk loss, but pushed it all the way past that, in net, to positive.
I have been following your discussion/ debate with Teckos.
My only question is are all these comments made by the two of you based on anything that CCP has explicitly said, or extrapolations in the face of radio silence by CCP? The thread is way too long to go back and troll through for all posts made by either of you.
I already noted what likely caused 2 of the spikes. For example, the first one is Alphas. The second preceeds the nerf to carrier/super combat/ratting capabilities. So two of Gevlon’s most prominent examples of “something” is wrong is explained by changes to game.
Gevlon is terrible at empirical work. He runs straight to looking for correlations vs. looking at other explanations that may have nothing to do with correlations in the data. Further, always looking for correlations and ignoring things outside the data set means you can find a correlation that is just the result of random chance. In fact, going out and looking for correlations with lots of variables you will eventually find one if you look long enough, but those correlations are likely bogus.
My only question is are all these comments made by the two of you based on anything that CCP has explicitly said, or extrapolations in the face of radio silence by CCP?
These apply largely to the recent merge of the Devlin article into this thread.
All related topics are being merged here. This is the third so far by my count.
Teckos and I are atm mostly discussing how active isk delta data is generated/collated.
My interest is in how/why the positive active isk delta spikes occurred, and whether PCU has an affect on isk inflation.
Teckos, is as usual, focusing mostly on me using the wrong word/term, “emergent content”, denying isk inflation etc. Same old. (No offense Teckos :D)
As to why the Devlin thread was merged here, I’m not sure.
Perhaps because his (inconclusive) conclusion was largely that CCP is not tracking the paper trail and confiscating isk from botters, or somehow strategically planning bot bans. His conclusions where, in my view, pretty tinfoil, but the data he presents I did find valid and has raised questions for me.
I already noted what likely caused 2 of the spikes. For example, the first one is Alphas. The second preceeds the nerf to carrier/super combat/ratting capabilities. So two of Gevlon’s most prominent examples of “something” is wrong is explained by changes to game.
Lets assume these to be valid (albeit the 3rd positive spike is not yet explained).
In the case of the alpha change spike, people presumably re-activated/logged in to create/fund Alphas. I think we can table that one.
In the case of the spike preceding the carrier nerf, (which was not, afaik, telegraphed, it came as a surprise) why would people re-activate/login? Surely they would instead have deactivated/stopped logging their cap accounts. Even presuming that would take 90days to register, why then the spike at that point PRECEEDING the nerf?
What about the third positive spike?
Lets assume these to be valid (albeit the 3rd positive spike is not yet explained).
I’m going to guess refineries. People “activating” an inactive account to mine.
In the case of the alpha spike, people presumably re-activated/logged in to create Alphas.
No, they were accounts that were not subbed were could not be accessed as Alphas complete with their wallets.
In the case of the spike preceding the carrier nerf, (which was not, afaik, telegraphed, it came as a surprise) why would people re-activate/login? Surely they would instead have deactivated their cap accounts. Even presuming that would take 90days to register, why then the spike at that point PRECEEDING the nerf?
It was not the nerf, it was the fact that farming ISK had become considerably easier.
What about the third positive spike?
Even if I can’t explain it/my explanation is wrong, you are really going to hinge your entire position on a single observation? Really? That would be the epitome of scientism.
No, their accounts that were not subbed were could not be accessed as Alphas complete with their wallets.
The alpha spike is tabled.
It was not the nerf, it was the fact that farming ISK had become considerably easier.
How had isk farming become easier at that point?
I dont remember any change that had made it easier.
I only remember the CCP nerf to carriers, which occured after this spike, and was not telegraphed…
I’m going to guess refineries. People “activating” an inactive account to mine.
If that coincides in the timeline, fair enough.
Even if I can’t explain it/my explanation is wrong, you are really going to hinge your entire position on a single observation? Really? That would be the epitome of scientism.
I am no more hinging my entire position on a single observation, than you are.
I’m asking questions and engaging in dialogue. Not making accusations.
I don’t hold you to being “right”.
How had isk farming become easier at that point?
That was the exact reason CCP gave for the nerf. Did you not see the Dev post and thread on the old forums? I linked it back upstream.
Our primary goal for this change is reducing the combat power of Carriers & Supercarriersin PvE, specifically anomaly ratting in Nullsec.–CCP Larrikan
Also this,
The Data:
Let’s set the stage for the decision by taking sample of 5 days in June. During that timeframe 10.6 Trillion ISK was rewarded in bounties. Of that:
- 22.3% (2.3T) of the ISK was generated by 1.4% of characters earning bounties, using Supercarriers
- 24.2% (2.6T) of the ISK was generated by 4.8% of characters earning bounties, using Carriers
- 19.1% (2T) of the ISK was generated by 16.6% of characters earning bounties, using T1 Cruisers
In other words, for the time period they were looking at 6.2% of the characters ratting in anomalies earned about 46.5% of that ratting ISK or 4.7-4.9 trillion ISK out of 10.6 Trillion.
That was the exact reason CCP gave for the nerf. Did you not see the Dev post and thread on the old forums?
They nerfed carriers because people started farming the hell out of content with them
But they had not increased isk rewards from that content preceding it.
It was not the nerf, it was the fact that farming ISK had become considerably easier.
No change had made it easier.
People just increasingly clued into how easy it had been with carriers.
I already noted what likely caused 2 of the spikes. For example, the first one is Alphas. The second preceeds the nerf to carrier/super combat/ratting capabilities
PLEX changes happened around the 2nd spike iirc. Lots of accounts with aurum.
Small positive delta in Dec probably from people activating accounts before Youl events kicked off. Not sure about the OCT spike
They nerfed carriers because people started farming the hell out of content with them
But they had not increased isk rewards from that content preceding it.
Yes, carriers/supers became more efficient. My hypothesis is people were reactivating accounts to take advantage of it, then CCP jumped right on it.
No change had made it easier.
People just increasingly clued into how easy it had been with carriers.
Yes…exactly. Carrier/super ratting allowed for easier farming. When word spread, people started reactivating old accounts. It is alot like lowering the price of PLEX in terms of its effect.
Think about it: if PLEX prices dropped IG (say CCP announced a permanent price reduction for 500 PLEX from $19.99 to say $14.99 we’d see a drop of prices in game) then we might see a similar spike.
Yes, carriers/supers became more efficient.
What change exactly made them more efficient?
Yes…exactly.
No. You said:
It was not the nerf, it was the fact that farming ISK had become considerably easier.
What change had made farming isk considerably easier?
PLEX changes happened around the 2nd spike iirc. Lots of accounts with aurum.
Hmmm…another interesting event. Good work.
The only thing I can think of is the Crimson Harvest event taking place after the 21st of October, but not sure if it had an effect or what the mechanics would be. I would note that it has been very popular since its inception.
It could be several things too, not just one.
In any case, those spikes involve a huge amount of re-activated isk wallets to push the extant underlying negative isk delta into a positive.
Additionally it could represent a decrease in the outgoing variable as well.
That is true too. All we see is the net…we have no idea how big the components (going inactive/reactivating) are.
Not even sure why CCP would like RMT…a player buying ISK from a dodgy website is not dropping his dollars into CCP’s wallet.
I’m sure somebody can come up with a horribly convoluted explanation and they’ll stick too it no matter how sharp Ockham’s Razor is or how often one shouts “the principle of parsimony”.
I’m sure somebody can come up with a horribly convoluted explanation and they’ll stick too it no matter how sharp Ockham’s Razor is or how often one shouts “the principle of parsimony”.
Did you not read Mathra’s report in this thread?
Or have you conveniently “forgotten” it.
Did you not read Mathra’s report in this thread?
Or have you conveniently “forgotten” it
Just to refresh your ailing memory, looking at the ISK delta stuff was because you thought greedygoblin statistical analysis and data gathering methodologies were really good (even if you did not agree with his overall conclusions).
We laughed at you for it, and Teckos has spent many posts explaining why we laughed at you for it.