I was confused about the history of Girani-Fa. However, the source of confusion has been cleared up.
I admit the Federation is perfectly capable of acting foolishly.
However, a favorable deal was in place. That deal was reached through Quafe diplomacy, one of our most cherished forms of art. I do think it is a safe bet the Federation did not decide to ruin everything by trying to seize the system with five dreadnoughts. Someone is screwing with us.