So firstly, I would like to thank you for keeping things concise.
I would like to state again, that the CONCORD changes I was proposing are not part of a plan to bring the chances of surviving a gank to 50% (whether sinking or increasing).
I suggested changes to CONCORD in order to make things seem less wooden, to reduce the CONCORD spam-fleets on gates and stations increasing the lag and blocking the overview worse than all those mobile depots in Jita. The CONCORD proposal (from 2015 I think) entered this thread in response to people talking (and disputing) over my stance on Random Numbers and Random Chances as a way to try and adjust the chances of surviving a gank. It is just as clear now (as it was in 2015) that gankers would very quickly adapt to any changes… and (if they are the sort that bother scanning their targets) would bring calculated DPS or (if they are the sort that either build a group of friends (who all want in on the action) or are more relaxed about success/failure) may be tempted to try something that they might not normally try. There is no modifying gank success here.
Some posters in this thread would have you believe that it is 0%, because gankers adapt and use maths.
The CONCORD changes were also not primarily aimed at Freighters and Haulers but rather at others. For Freighters and Haulers there will always be enough targets hauling too much, so that the ganks (plus or minus a Talos or two) would still be profitable.
As I said, the CONCORD change would not, I think, really result in a change in the ganking survival. The idea (from 2015 I think) was not there for that.
No, it would stay an N+1 calculation, as people have already pointed out. The N might be moved, as it was with various mining barge buffs and module buffs (anyone remember when you had to activate Damage Controls?). But it would still be just maths.
It can’t, but the CONCORD change that I thought of back in 2015 was not designed with that in mind.
There would be no significant change in the ganks. The costs to the gankers would not go up that much compared to how much loot they are getting (see some above posts… the ganking ships are cheap in comparison to what they get).
None of the other changes have lead to a net increase in safety. Freighter are not safer now that they can fit Bulkheads. Miners are not safer now that the grid size has been increased.