Trying to keep this concise:
What do you believe is the current chance of surviving a gank attempt?
If you believe it is less than 50%, then changing the chance to be at least 50% is an increased chance of survival for gank targets.
If that holds, then on the other side of the encounter, a higher than 50% chance of success is reduced to no more than 50%. That is a reduced chance of success for gankers.
That equates to more safety just on the percentage changes.
In addition, the change seems to propose a RNG base to whether CONCORD responds, so it becomes a lottery whether the more valuable potential ganks, that are enticing for gankers, have success.
Their calculation goes from an N+1 calculation where they can accept the risk as they do now, to not knowing if they’ll be successful or not in getting what they really want.
For a lot of people, that will be pretty discouraging. It makes ganking as a profession, less interesting.
So the proposal is both a lower chance of success and a less attractive career choice for gankers.
I don’t see how it can’t lead to more safety.
For my play style as a hauler, lower risk for us all = increased ability to haul without proper regard for safety. That leads to a more even playing field between the unskilled and skilled and will directly hit the profit that the good haulers can make (eg. Why pay the premium of Red Frog, when i can just drop a contract in the Haulers Channel and it’ll get there anyway).
Changing competition isn’t itself bad. Players will adapt.
However arguing that the net effect wont be an increase in safety seems to be a strange analysis.