Is Eve in it’s death throes?
Well, my last prognostication didn’t pan out, although I guess you could say that chart did predict when CCP was sold to PA. Maybe I’ll try to do something similar with forum and/or Reddit activity to get a revised estimate.
But my hot take: Eve is dying now, for reals, at least when it comes to the great game it was. The die has been cast, all the relevant decision points past, and the downward trajectory probably irreversible now. But we aren’t in some death throes yet. That would imply radical changes, desperate decisions, and/or in-game chaos. Instead, we are still gently sliding into the murk, panic not yet having set in.
And it may not for years still. Good management will just pare back the development efforts and keep the boat steady as long as possible. Let people exit quietly by the doors while gently milking the remainder as long as possible, and not spark a stampede that will end things in a cataclysmic fail cascade over a few months.
I think they really tried, but it is hard to argue they succeeded in re-igniting the game over the last years. They chose monetization over gameplay, farmers over content, and trying to be all things to everyone rather than focusing on their core fans, and while maybe Eve would already be dead if they didn’t, it has cost the game its soul.
Things without souls are rather unsettling, even if people can’t put their finger on the reason why. It seems a long shot to me that Eve is ever going to grow again in the unsettling condition it has arrived at.