Good question @Arthur_Aihaken
I think it is too early to make bets on what will happen, mostly because CCPs behaviour is an unknown factor here. Abyssal Deadspace and procedually created content is their new baby. If CCP learned anything from the past then it would be to not give up too early, stay on top of things and push through the difficulties in a proactive way.
That being said, here comes my prediction:
We had a pretty crazy situation with Abyssal Deadspace these past couple of days. For the first time I can remember it is actually considered not totally embarassing to lose a ship to NPCs. Despite losses of nearly 4T in under a week, players are still high with the great new content, the awesome graphics and certainly the hope to make bank.
At least the latter part of which won’t last much longer and we’ll see a collective hangover in the near future.
While some people made billions building and selling the first Triglavian ships, using trade opportunities that arose and so on, most people just burned through a good amount of ISK/ships in the hope that the high prices from the start would stay. Running anything but Tier4 or Tier5 is already a great net loss for anyone living outside of Highsec, as the lower tier Trig sites don’t pay off for their time investment at all, taken the current loottables.
I could go into details for all of the loot, but let me just say there is only one stabilizing factor at this point, which is the Isogen-10 as a needed ressource for Triglavian ships, which has a low enough droprate to keep up the necessity to farm sites in order to deliver the Damavik/Vedmak/Leshak and their modules. Mutaplasmids were the other big hope for continous use of the sites, but as I’ve said many times before the launch, their droprate and nerfed strength make them a very niche thing, with little to no use for the vast majority of players. Some dudes will keep on working in order to get their AT ships even more powerful, but that’s it.
Personally I think the sites are fun, but they offer so little in other rewards considering the high risk and need to be extremely concentrated, that many people will pretty much just stop running them soon.
The one big question is wether or not many people in Highsec will see it as a viable longterm commitment to grind these sites in order to source Triglavian ships. For highseccers the higher tier sites could prove to be good income at least for the near future, if they can manage to not lose so many ships. The demand for Triglavian ships will not vanish over night.
So in short:
- most non-highseccers will stop running them soon
- mutaplasmids will be even more niche than predicted before
- Triglavian ships and Isogen-10 will be a stabilizing factor
- AD needs concentration and people could burn out, when profits starts to fall
That being said, we can’t predict what CCP will do with it, once the curve drops down.
They might reconsider their somewhat anxious approach to Mutaplasmids and this might fuel the desire to run more sites anew. They might also reconsider a lot of other mechanics around Abyssal Deadspace which may or may not shift what players do with them.
Personally I would like if they basically flooded the sites with Mutaplasmids. While making the single Mutaplasmid way less valuable, a tenfold increase (or even more) in droprates, would actually push them from being the unviable thing they are now to a spot where they are interesting for many players. This would of course result in the giant material sink some people hoped for and others feared. Anyhow, I think it would be an interesting although a brave choice to make.
P.S. not to forget, that what we see now may just be the first step in a series of developments using the new mechanics. For better or worse, CCP has started something and there is no good reason to back off.