My Assumption/Theory about current story ARC start when starts play out based on past events

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o7

Capsulers! You can read here my attempt reserve enginer the possible plans of CCP for the first Story arc that annuanced this year.
My assumtions and theory based on past events. please keep in mind this is all done by one person and most of my assumption is a theory.
Totatly possible i wrong.

First we need see the past!

Triglavian Inviasion time line:

Damaged Drifter ships spawn on gates in large numbers : Time unknown before 2018-04 expected (not found source to conform this, may need dig more :=( )

New Future, Abbysial Dead Space annouanced via fan fests: 2018-04-13
Fanfest 2018-from 13th minute, annuancing triglavians, and abbys dead space, Source: EVE Fanfest 2018 - EVE Online Keynote - YouTube

Triglavians Revealed Scope video: 2018-04-27 (source: The Scope - The Triglavian Collective Revealed - YouTube)

Abbysial Dead Space Realised: 2018-05-29 (source: EVE Online: Into The Abyss To Be Deployed On May 29th, 2018! | EVE Online)

Abbysial cathes and abysial pvp Annuanced: 2018-11-07 (source: Abyssal Onslaught - New Content Coming To The Abyss! | EVE Online)
This go live in 2018-11-13 (Source: EVE Online: Onslaught Is Now Live! | EVE Online)

Scope video about bill boards taken by Triglavians. Triglavian first annuance the trials, the strugle: 2019-03-15 (source: The Scope - Triglavians Take Over Billboards - YouTube)

Scope video: in abbys triglavian has ship building sites 2019-03-23 (source: The Scope - Triglavian construction site discovered and Katia Sae completes her world tour - YouTube)

Video trailer: Triglavian invasion annuancment 2019-05-24 (source: EVE Online - Invasion Cinematic Trailer - YouTube)

Invasion Expension launch 2019-05-28
This mark of offical invasion start

EVE Pulse: Triglavian invasion explanation 2019-05-28 (source: EVE Pulse - New Invasion Expansion Features - YouTube)

Scope video:Triglavian invasion escalates, new sites spawn 2019-06-07 (Source: The Scope - Triglavian Invasion Escalates - YouTube)

Invasion Chapter 2 annuancment 2019-11-26 (Source: Invasion Chapter 2 is Now Live! | EVE Online)
this anuancment clearly says now possible to side with triglavians or edencome!

Scope video: Triglavian secunb bill board take ower, inviting cpasulers to join their side, kybernauts first mention in video 2019-12-13(Source: The Scope - Triglavian developments and fighting in HEK. - YouTube)

Trailer Eclips expension, forshadowing invasion events 2020-04-02 ( Source: EVE Online - Eclipse Quadrant 2 Trailer - YouTube )

Scope Video: EDENCOME foundation annuancment 2020-05-20 (source: The Scope - EDENCOM Prepares for Triglavian Invasion - YouTube)

Chapter 3 the final chapter of invasion has annuanced : 2020-05-26 ( Source: Invasion Chapter 3 Now Live | EVE Online)

Scope Video: Ravaross fallen, the first system to fall for Trigs 2020-06-06 (source: The Scope - Raravoss conquered by Triglavians - YouTube)
Note: this is the first major victory for triglavian as Ravaros is a Final luminal candidate!

Annuancment 2020Q3, the final act of the triglavian invasion ARC 2020-07-14 (Source: Zenith - Quadrant 3 begins today! | EVE Online)

Scope Video: invasion in progress, few possibile effect on lost system revealed 2020-07-16 (source: TOTAL WAR RAGES IN NEW EDEN - YouTube)
NOTE: to this point and after this point not clear the consiqences of the system fall to Triglavians.

Annuancment invasion soon reach “zenit” its means end 2020-09-17 (source: Invasion reaches its Zenith | EVE Online)

Scope Video: Potchoven formed: 2020-10-03 (source: The Scope - War in Delve and formation of Pochven - YouTube)

Scope Video: Aftermath of the invasion, Gate network Soutdown may comming! 2020-10-10 (Source: The Scope - Growing Fears Over Stargates - YouTube)

Invasion ower, 2020Q4 Phonix officaly starts 2020-10-14 (source: Phoenix - Quadrant 4 Begins Today! | EVE Online )

Invasion officaly ower 2020-10-14

Let see a more cleaner time line, i put here only event that i count turning points story wise:

Triglavian interduduction: 2018-04-13
this with abbysial dead space is a essential word and lore building for upcoming events.
in 2018-05-29-abbysial deadspace realised prior 1 year the invasion offical start.

2019-03-15 this date important becuse its first message from Zorya Triglav. this is a preparation for the invasion annuancment!
If not seen this i suggest check agin, lot of clues put here! The Scope - Triglavian developments and fighting in HEK. - YouTube

first phase of invasion started 2019-05-28 officaly, this phase take 6 month to close.
this phase triglavians poked new eden prepared to the next moves, doing recon operations.
hints given the player what is comming.

secund phase started 2019-11-26 form this point officaly player can join trigs or edencome ( this phase take 6 months)
triglavian activity rise up, triglavians attack concord stations, deploys word arks.
this is prelude to the final stage of invasion.

Final phase of invasion started 2020-05-26
now triglavians capable capture systems.
this phase ended in 2020-10-14 this means 5 month to play out the invasion final phase.

invasion run time: from 2019-06 to 2020-10 (slicing to make more easy to calculate) 17 month total run time, maybe if edncome side hold more longer the final phase possible to take bit longer and 18 month.

okay enught to past let see how the current time line looks!
2022-04-04 jita capsule escape ( Source: The Scope - Treason in JITA 4-4 - YouTube )

2022-04-29 capsule hunt failed, scope video (Source: EVE Online | The Scope – Mass Defection and Dreadnought Advances - YouTube)

2022-05-06 Source: Fanfest is here! | EVE Online
Anuancing in key note the new Arc Story telling system
reasling the deathless scope video (Source: EVE Online | The Scope – "Deathless" Interrupts Concord and Diplomatic Crisis - YouTube)
Annunacing FW rework that comes 2022 end. probably 2022-10 month.

At this point no scope video avible. Best conclusion of current situation come from here, as lg as offical things go.
2020-07-20 (Source: Galactic Hour News Roundup: Images from Athounon V Indicate Triglavian Activity as Militia Offensives Sweep Across Warzones | EVE Universe)

This type of vide recording cut matches the videos can be seen in 2018.
Here is the source: The Scope - The Triglavian Collective Revealed - YouTube
Time stamp: 2018-04-27
go in video to 1:31 to see same cut video as recovered recently.

Last time new gameplay elements prestented to us abbysial proving grunds and dead space in 2018 fanfest. Then 1 year passed before the real big hitter come: the invasion.

if this is the plan from CCP we need wait FW update happen, wait next fanfest for next invasion level update.
Feels to me not matching, in 2018 we got new mechanick in 2022 we get a exisitng mechanick change and this happening end of the year not the start.

Option 2. this time from fan fest we need wait 6 month to first phase finishes(foundiation put in place) Then from 11. th mont or close to it ccp start reveal real stuff to us about next big hitter event.
this feels to me correct sequence of events: this make possible do the preparation phase 6 month before 2023 fan fest. Preparation phase this case same as trig invasion first 6 month.
Then during fan fest they can annuance real big thing going to happen. and big pew-pew can be started, word go explode!
at least i hope this is the plan.

Thx for reading! I happy to read what others thinking about this things, :slight_smile:
o/

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image

And I am not reserving any engineers for this tinfoil hat moment.

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What’s the TL;DR?

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That the timeline of the Triglavian Invasion event story unfolding means we have to wait another 6 months to a year to find out what the currently advertised “This year’s new story arc already unfolding!” is about.

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2 to 3 months. And we already know what it is xD

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Cool. Then you should probably let the OP know what this years player-driven narrative story arc, that allows us to shape the future of New Eden, is going to be about then.

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spoilers.

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You’re welcome.
fyi: the word you’re looking for is: Announce
Anyways…
I think you converge unrelated events on a timeline that doesn’t exist based on events that either haven’t been thought up yet or are so far in development that one cannot fathom them having even have a conclusion ready. Like the blind leading the blind… At least until CCP decides to declassify their highly secured documents locked away in a Vatican’s vault and guarded by three very serious Pontifical Swiss guards with no sense of humour.
Unless CCP would like to contradict me on that (?).

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TL;DR:
Based on Triglavian invasion i tryed predict when the curent story arc start unfold.
Think most possible is this: in 2022 month 11 (±1) new sites/activities open up.
After that in 2023, end of month 5 (±1) CCP annuance the new chapter and after that point we players has opportunity to influence what and how happening in a great way. ( i imiagine same as triglavian invasion… so maybe we can make niajara level of things happen at least i hope)

Secund prediction(i think this not the route we in): CCP fallow the route of abbysial dead space and proving grund. This case 2023 fanfest starting point of a new chapter that take 1 year to unfold then 2024 we can see radical changes to EVE as we know right now.

in sort: yes i aggre :slight_smile:

i think 2022 month 10 realise for new FW update is planned. Probably need few month to settle in things and debugg things, realsie players do things ccp not expected.
Based on CCP plan put story to patches this need to indicate some changes to current runinng events.

totaly agre blind lead blind.
I try put my assamptuin base the facts that come outside of ccp.
i think the reason during invasion event happened 6 month separatation is the fact players need time to do things. probably ccp done lot reasorch how mutch time keep player occupied new activity.

time fan fest things big things seems logical to me.
Timing intrestign event to summer time 5th to 11th month smart move so players has lot reason to come online and do things( and probably keep subbed, if one not play eve in summer time why keep subbed? ).

:slight_smile:
10/10
or we just need wait 1 year to see my predictions correct or totaly false :slight_smile:

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Based on recent event i started feel: may i need correct my predictions.

Now i belive Rute 1 has ben playing out. Based on fallowing facts:

CCP Annuanced road map and “uprising event” in 2022-09-07: Uprising anancment

Current events 2022-09-29:

This one come earlyer than expected. CCP said during this stream:
CCP stream annuance “the race is on” event
this current event used as experiment see how things work in practice.

This makes sense this way the dev teem has 1 month at minimum before the big realise of FW changes. I expect the FW changes kicks in not sooner as at least one side in both side of event( amar-minmatar and caldari-gallenete) archive their objective. Probably the current event end as FW changes get activated. This means if FW changes get activated end of 11th month we have 2 month to play out the event.

From 2022-11th month the next year fan fest 7-8 month range. if the new in game event keep the past patter at least one new major event going to happen expected in 2023-2th(±2) month this case the next event has 3-4 month to play out. This chains of event i predict get end near or exactli the time of 2023 fan fest. this is a nice point of time to annuance very big earth shaking changes.

other good side efect this timing they have at minium 2 month to fix and polish the fw changes. that probably need to happen any way.

Based on past experiences especialy Triglavian Invasion ones i going pack my stuff to get ready evacuate and move them separate systems and npc owened stations before fan fest.
If my predictions correct after fanfest we get another chance to “reshape” high sec (at least i hope this going to happen :slight_smile: or soemthing similar ).

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