Capsulers! You can read here my attempt reserve enginer the possible plans of CCP for the first Story arc that annuanced this year.
My assumtions and theory based on past events. please keep in mind this is all done by one person and most of my assumption is a theory.
Totatly possible i wrong.
First we need see the past!
Triglavian Inviasion time line:
Damaged Drifter ships spawn on gates in large numbers : Time unknown before 2018-04 expected (not found source to conform this, may need dig more :=( )
New Future, Abbysial Dead Space annouanced via fan fests: 2018-04-13
Fanfest 2018-from 13th minute, annuancing triglavians, and abbys dead space, Source: EVE Fanfest 2018 - EVE Online Keynote - YouTube
Triglavians Revealed Scope video: 2018-04-27 (source: The Scope - The Triglavian Collective Revealed - YouTube)
Abbysial Dead Space Realised: 2018-05-29 (source: EVE Online: Into The Abyss To Be Deployed On May 29th, 2018! | EVE Online)
Abbysial cathes and abysial pvp Annuanced: 2018-11-07 (source: Abyssal Onslaught - New Content Coming To The Abyss! | EVE Online)
This go live in 2018-11-13 (Source: EVE Online: Onslaught Is Now Live! | EVE Online)
Scope video about bill boards taken by Triglavians. Triglavian first annuance the trials, the strugle: 2019-03-15 (source: The Scope - Triglavians Take Over Billboards - YouTube)
Scope video: in abbys triglavian has ship building sites 2019-03-23 (source: The Scope - Triglavian construction site discovered and Katia Sae completes her world tour - YouTube)
Video trailer: Triglavian invasion annuancment 2019-05-24 (source: EVE Online - Invasion Cinematic Trailer - YouTube)
Invasion Expension launch 2019-05-28
This mark of offical invasion start
EVE Pulse: Triglavian invasion explanation 2019-05-28 (source: EVE Pulse - New Invasion Expansion Features - YouTube)
Scope video:Triglavian invasion escalates, new sites spawn 2019-06-07 (Source: The Scope - Triglavian Invasion Escalates - YouTube)
Invasion Chapter 2 annuancment 2019-11-26 (Source: Invasion Chapter 2 is Now Live! | EVE Online)
this anuancment clearly says now possible to side with triglavians or edencome!
Scope video: Triglavian secunb bill board take ower, inviting cpasulers to join their side, kybernauts first mention in video 2019-12-13(Source: The Scope - Triglavian developments and fighting in HEK. - YouTube)
Trailer Eclips expension, forshadowing invasion events 2020-04-02 ( Source: EVE Online - Eclipse Quadrant 2 Trailer - YouTube )
Scope Video: EDENCOME foundation annuancment 2020-05-20 (source: The Scope - EDENCOM Prepares for Triglavian Invasion - YouTube)
Chapter 3 the final chapter of invasion has annuanced : 2020-05-26 ( Source: Invasion Chapter 3 Now Live | EVE Online)
Scope Video: Ravaross fallen, the first system to fall for Trigs 2020-06-06 (source: The Scope - Raravoss conquered by Triglavians - YouTube)
Note: this is the first major victory for triglavian as Ravaros is a Final luminal candidate!
Annuancment 2020Q3, the final act of the triglavian invasion ARC 2020-07-14 (Source: Zenith - Quadrant 3 begins today! | EVE Online)
Scope Video: invasion in progress, few possibile effect on lost system revealed 2020-07-16 (source: TOTAL WAR RAGES IN NEW EDEN - YouTube)
NOTE: to this point and after this point not clear the consiqences of the system fall to Triglavians.
Annuancment invasion soon reach “zenit” its means end 2020-09-17 (source: Invasion reaches its Zenith | EVE Online)
Scope Video: Potchoven formed: 2020-10-03 (source: The Scope - War in Delve and formation of Pochven - YouTube)
Scope Video: Aftermath of the invasion, Gate network Soutdown may comming! 2020-10-10 (Source: The Scope - Growing Fears Over Stargates - YouTube)
Invasion ower, 2020Q4 Phonix officaly starts 2020-10-14 (source: Phoenix - Quadrant 4 Begins Today! | EVE Online )
Invasion officaly ower 2020-10-14
Let see a more cleaner time line, i put here only event that i count turning points story wise:
Triglavian interduduction: 2018-04-13
this with abbysial dead space is a essential word and lore building for upcoming events.
in 2018-05-29-abbysial deadspace realised prior 1 year the invasion offical start.
2019-03-15 this date important becuse its first message from Zorya Triglav. this is a preparation for the invasion annuancment!
If not seen this i suggest check agin, lot of clues put here! The Scope - Triglavian developments and fighting in HEK. - YouTube
first phase of invasion started 2019-05-28 officaly, this phase take 6 month to close.
this phase triglavians poked new eden prepared to the next moves, doing recon operations.
hints given the player what is comming.
secund phase started 2019-11-26 form this point officaly player can join trigs or edencome ( this phase take 6 months)
triglavian activity rise up, triglavians attack concord stations, deploys word arks.
this is prelude to the final stage of invasion.
Final phase of invasion started 2020-05-26
now triglavians capable capture systems.
this phase ended in 2020-10-14 this means 5 month to play out the invasion final phase.
invasion run time: from 2019-06 to 2020-10 (slicing to make more easy to calculate) 17 month total run time, maybe if edncome side hold more longer the final phase possible to take bit longer and 18 month.
okay enught to past let see how the current time line looks!
2022-04-04 jita capsule escape ( Source: The Scope - Treason in JITA 4-4 - YouTube )
2022-04-29 capsule hunt failed, scope video (Source: EVE Online | The Scope – Mass Defection and Dreadnought Advances - YouTube)
2022-05-06 Source: Fanfest is here! | EVE Online
Anuancing in key note the new Arc Story telling system
reasling the deathless scope video (Source: EVE Online | The Scope – "Deathless" Interrupts Concord and Diplomatic Crisis - YouTube)
Annunacing FW rework that comes 2022 end. probably 2022-10 month.
At this point no scope video avible. Best conclusion of current situation come from here, as lg as offical things go.
2020-07-20 (Source: Galactic Hour News Roundup: Images from Athounon V Indicate Triglavian Activity as Militia Offensives Sweep Across Warzones | EVE Universe)
This type of vide recording cut matches the videos can be seen in 2018.
Here is the source: The Scope - The Triglavian Collective Revealed - YouTube
Time stamp: 2018-04-27
go in video to 1:31 to see same cut video as recovered recently.
Last time new gameplay elements prestented to us abbysial proving grunds and dead space in 2018 fanfest. Then 1 year passed before the real big hitter come: the invasion.
if this is the plan from CCP we need wait FW update happen, wait next fanfest for next invasion level update.
Feels to me not matching, in 2018 we got new mechanick in 2022 we get a exisitng mechanick change and this happening end of the year not the start.
Option 2. this time from fan fest we need wait 6 month to first phase finishes(foundiation put in place) Then from 11. th mont or close to it ccp start reveal real stuff to us about next big hitter event.
this feels to me correct sequence of events: this make possible do the preparation phase 6 month before 2023 fan fest. Preparation phase this case same as trig invasion first 6 month.
Then during fan fest they can annuance real big thing going to happen. and big pew-pew can be started, word go explode!
at least i hope this is the plan.
Thx for reading! I happy to read what others thinking about this things,