Preparing for Lifeblood - Phase 2

(Sabriz Adoudel) #1

Hey folks, so this is my second thread about market preparation for the Lifeblood release. The first one was Salvage Futures - A Market Analysis (Full Disclosure: Vested Interest)

Like that thread, I’ve acted upon my own advice before posting here. And just like the first one, you should not trust my word on that.

New structures are being launched with Lifeblood. In addition to salvage being central to producing these structures, the other key component to them is the structure components they are made from.

I’m making two key assumptions here.

First Assumption:
There will be a massive rush to acquire Tatara structures, and the medium version as well.

Because of this, early adopters will be willing to pay a premium over normal prices to have them right now, so they do not miss any opportunities to harvest moongoo.

Second Assumption:

The limiting factor in production of refineries will not be materials, but the stock of available blueprints. Both the actual structure blueprints themselves, and also the preliminary components, will be the limiting factors.

There’s no way to acquire Tatara blueprints, nor the medium structure, at the moment.

But it is possible to acquire well researched (ME 8-10, TE 8+) blueprint originals for all of the structure components and has been over the last few months, as well as researching some of my own. It is also possible to purchase the structure components on the market themselves, or BPCs for them.

If you agree with my analysis you have two options. It’s now too late to research ME 8+ structure BPOs before Lifeblood.

You can either purchase the structure components that already exist on the market and stockpile them, looking to sell them around Lifeblood release date (depending upon your investable capital and your willingness to purchase a BPO for the new structures, possibly after turning them into the new structures).

Or, you can purchase well researched BPOs from the contract market.

Personal interest statement: I lack the freighter capabilities needed to get heavily into the structure component manufacturing side myself, so I will likely be selling my structure BPOs into the release hype. You should consider this before acting on this advice, you should also consider the possibility that this is a bad faith post.

(Sabriz Adoudel) #2

well this thread went under the radar, but I did almost double the ISK I invested into researched structure component BPOs a while back.

Only made around ten billion but am happy with that, given the ultra low effort.

I’ve put a lot more effort into tech 2 manipulations today and they seem to be doing just fine too.

(Tipa Riot) #3

What’s the point of you posting? If you would give a heads-up which and before you manipulate an item … :wink:

(Sabriz Adoudel) #4

If I’d told you 24 hours ago that I’d be manipulating the Adaptive Invulnerability Field II and 1600mm Steel Plates II markets, you could have gone in and wrecked me.

FWIW, I’m considering artificially spiking the price of Drone Damage Amplifier II but am probably not going to pull the trigger. You are more than welcome to do so, if you agree with me that it is a reasonable opportunity.

(Tipa Riot) #5

I will let the manipulation to others and just sell into the spikes from freshly produced stuff.

(Sabriz Adoudel) #6

The whole point of the manipulation was knowing that the cost to produce had gone up, hence margins were squeezed.

I don’t doubt there will be some Adaptive Invulnerability Field II producers that are quite happy with me in a day or two when their production cycles end. By then I will be out of the market. Hell, I’m down to a billion ISK worth of them now.

(Tipa Riot) #7

Indeed, not saying I will go in. My focus is on bigger stuff, which needs less micro-management and has better margins.

(Brock Khans) #8

I always find this kind of info very interesting. Market manipulation or forecasting has always interested me but I’ve never been confident enough to pull the trigger and then patient enough to sit on it until the price is right.

I assume it’s just trial and error and hope you don’t lose too much isk when learning it

(system) #9

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