True enough, I can’t prove it with published data. That’s why the post you’re replying to essentially states I’m supposing it from looking at a lot of KB records.
I also got interested enough in the HS kills issue: data vs. perception notion to post an entire thread looking at the stats. And concluded what you’ve pointed out here - that the data we have available outside of CCP isn’t sufficient to determine the state of HS ganking with regards to new players, low value kills, etc. There’s too many variables that only CCP has access to.
That said, long experience with the game, and lots of data reviewed, has led me to believe ganking is more likely to lose players after they’ve played for a few months - not newbies. (Note: this was not my original opinion on the issue. I originally expected that players getting ganked in their first few weeks would be a thing.)
Once they’ve put some time and ISK into something they think is going to be “a new stage” of the game for them (first hauler, first barge, first BS, whatever) and then get ganked… that’s when I see players saying “Screw this I’m out”.
I’d also point out that never seen conflicting data posted - either hundreds of legit newbie killmails in say a month’s time, or frequent forum posters or even help channel commenters saying “My Heron/Venture/Coercer/Moa just got ganked, I’m out”. I have seen examples of those, just not in substantial numbers.
Again, I freely admit - these are my opinions, not facts. My own personal conclusion was that the ganking in high sec issue needs further looking into on CCP’s part (they have the data), but that the effect it has might not be the obvious one people think of.
Even if my own view is correct (ganking focuses on not-new but not-vet players), that may turn out to be significant in it’s own way. These are players who got past the startup phase, got interested enough to play more and probably pay… and then potentially lose their early stake in the game to some bored vet ganker. Which could potentially be costing EVE more valuable players than random newbies.