Regarding RSS and illegal arrests

[Arrendis]

@Gaven_Lok_ri

Whatever it was was small enough to fit in a battleship. And we don’t know how it works.

Except we do know a few things.

First: It’s not a gravitic weapon of some sort, because the gravity waves would have been easy to pick up and triangulate over the last 12 years as they moved outward through the various star systems. Yes, the initial firing event took place deep in Domain. However, it’d be extraordinarily foolish to insist that agents of other nations (or even just other Houses, since the weapon was in the hands of House Sarum) wouldn’t have made an effort to move assets into position for such a detection, given the advanced notice and relative ease of doing so. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of places to go. Heck, this is a decent representation (the circled systems showing the furthest points) of where such detectors could have been set up two years ago:

^{Image courtesy GARPA Topographical Survey Tool, v 3.3.1.0, © YC122, Goonfleet Advanced Research Projects Agency [GARPA]}

We can also be reasonably sure that it didn’t suck them into Anoikis, given the complete lack of any sign of them in all the systems we’ve found in there over the years. Which means it likely required some form of directed energy emission. (After all, even chemical projectiles and railguns still feature directed energy emission, that energy’s just kinetic)

So we’d have needed to see some kind of unexplained directed energy emission. And, again, you’d have to be daft to not think the other nations (and CONCORD) weren’t watching like hawks for exactly that sort of thing with assets both in-space/cloaky, and infiltrated through the Golden Fleet, during the Throne Worlds campaign. It’s the sort of thing even the most utterly incompetent spymasters would think of ‘gee, an existential threat from a seemingly unstoppable foe. I wonder if that Sarum superweapon’ll show up!’

And in the years since, if such a thing had been observed—especially with the SoCT crawling all over the place throwing entosis links at everything during that time-frame—it would’ve come out. There’s been too much nonsense slung about in all directions to think someone wouldn’t have spilled the beans just to make someone else look incompetent in some way. So we can be about as sure that that superweapon, at least, isn’t still in an operational condition as we can of pretty much anything else in the cluster.

@Gaven_Lok_ri

I would generally suggest that it is probably safer to assume that all of the empires have strategic weapons that can be war changers in the right conditions in reserve.

Though I think you are right to not be particularly worried that Amarr will suddenly have them on every battleship.

I do still have agents out searching for whatever happened to TES Auctoritas, you know. She was rumored to be packing entosis-shielding, among other things.

@Johann_Bererund

But now, with the intensifying Triglavian menace added on top of these two pre-existing existential threats, it is no surprise if the Services find themselves having to make difficult compromises to ensure the safety of as many of our people as possible, as they decide how best to allocate their severely limited resources.

Except, you know, you can’t really pull out infiltrators who’ve been working to borrow deeper and higher into criminal organizations, wash them off, and send them into CONCORD’s shiny new EDENCOMM group. That’s not how that works. You’d need assets you’d been previously developing within CONCORD, and within Upwell—which means within ORE, before it, as well as other major multinational industrial powerhouses.

This isn’t the sort of thing you wave a wand and make happen. You can’t just shift budget around and go ‘POOF! We have assets in there!’ This is all operations the RSS would be moving other assets to cover, while training more people to cover the greater spread, and not disrupting operations involving unconnected groups.

[Gaven_Lok_ri]

All of that only works if the failure state of an attempt to use it on drifters produced a similar result for your hypothetical (and probably entirely real) detectors as the successful use in Sarum.

Like you seem to be imagining the weapon going off, it’s fireworks happening, and drifters surviving it. I agree that would be really hard to have kept hidden.

But if the scenario was more “They hit the button, and just… nothing happened because of something about drifters keeping it from activating at all,” then most of that doesn’t apply.

It also doesn’t deal with scenarios where Amarr Admiralty knew ahead of time that it wouldn’t work in that context for whatever reason and just didn’t use it. Or scenarios where some sort of static emplacement is needed (the device’s only use was deep in Sarum territory).

Your argument is still probably the most likely solution to the current evidence, but I personally wouldn’t put it at higher than 60% chance. There is also the distinct issue that it has been some time since the Drifter War, so one of the more chilling scenarios for Tribal Oligarchy Admirals is probably that “Amarr has figured out how to mass produce it, but simply hadn’t produced enough to be decisive before the Drifter War and therefore chose not to use it piecemeal.”

[Arrendis]

@Gaven_Lok_ri

They hit the button, and just… nothing happened because of something about drifters keeping it from activating at all,

This scenario right here? This would have caused massive amounts of chatter at the highest levels of basically every part of the Imperial infrastructure that knew there was even a button to push. And they would know.

The weapon wouldn’t be on a ship without the admiralty knowing about it. It wouldn’t be out in the field without R&D knowing about it (because if it works, you want to know that). The mere attempt, to say nothing of the mysterious failure of the weapon to even activate would be keenly tracked by strategists and command & control elements well beyond just the Fleet.

In short, a supposedly dead Heir turning up with this thing when she’s been cloaking literally everything she does up to and including breathing in ‘nobody gets to know about this but you 5 guys’? Yeah, she can keep this thing secret. Once it’s integrated into a bureaucracy? Hell no.

@Gaven_Lok_ri

It also doesn’t deal with scenarios where Amarr Admiralty knew ahead of time that it wouldn’t work in that context for whatever reason and just didn’t use it.

If the Admiralty knew this, then that implies the Admiralty knew about some incredible capability of the Drifters that they still haven’t shared, even with CONCORD. And really, in those days of ‘THOSE BASTARDS KILLED THE EMPRESS LET’S ALL RALLY ROUND THE EMPIRE RAAAAAARSAVENEWEDENRAAAAAAR!!!’ to imagine there’s a ‘OMG look how dangerous these guys are, you can’t even use a SUPERWEAPON on them!’ would have gone unused as a propaganda point is absolutely insane.

@Gaven_Lok_ri

Or scenarios where some sort of static emplacement is needed (the device’s only use was deep in Sarum territory).

Except, once again, this pushes us back into the realm of ‘yep, this vast freakin’ bureaucracy knows about this thing, and somehow manages to keep it a secret’.

Bureaucracies really aren’t good at secrets. The more infrastructure this thing needs, the more that’s gonna get noticed by the plebs and the opportunists alike—the people who don’t know enough to not talk, and the people who do know enough to know how much money they can get for talking.

@Gaven_Lok_ri

Tribal Oligarchy Admirals

Let’s not start doing this, shall we?

I appreciate the distinction this places between the old government and the Shakorite regime. I even acknowledge that this kind of descriptor (an oligarchy vs a representative republic) might seem more accurate when describing the Sanmatar and Tribal Council model. However, the Tribal Chiefs are chosen from within the Tribes, and don’t simply assume positions of authority in the government because they can, and the representative legislating body does still exist. But even setting that aside…

When referring to sovereign political entities, Lord Chapter Master, it generally behooves those who wish to be taken seriously to use the proper name such entities choose to identify themselves with. It doesn’t matter if we’re talking about people attempting to belittle Gallente processes as ‘demon-cratic’, or seeking to get a rise out of members of TEST by calling them ‘TAPI’, or any other form of this kind of attempt at subtle backhanded sleights.

Such tactics indicate bad faith, and a willingness to misrepresent one’s arguments. It shows that the wielder is more concerned with cheap political points than actually dealing with facts. In short, it demeans the person who uses it, not the intended target. And such behavior is unworthy of you.

@Gaven_Lok_ri

Amarr has figured out how to mass produce it, but simply hadn’t produced enough to be decisive before the Drifter War and therefore chose not to use it piecemeal.

That would, indeed, be a concern… but again, I don’t think it’s really one to worry about. Consider the speed with which Force Auxiliaries were pressed into service once the research was done. I’ve watched nano-assemblers build an entire Keepstar in 24h (literally sitting cloaked and watching it happen). So, yeah, I can’t really imagine that kind of lag in ‘how many can we build??’ is really an issue. If the Empire had the tech to make 'em, they’d have used what they had against the Drifters, at least once.

[Aldrith_Shutaq]

I believe you may mildly off-topic by now. Came here for Minmatar infighting, got Arrendis over-analysing Amarrians. Again.

[Johann_Bererund]

Regarding the ease with which the RSS can transfer resources between threats: @Arrendis is correct in pointing out that infiltration takes a long time, and that you can’t just move agents that have spent decades undercover in one organization and plop them into another. Presumably the RSS has had agents in the Cartel and the Kruellfor for years, and has also infiltrated Intriguerre long ago.

But it’s nearly impossible to destroy a criminal organization completely from the inside. Ideally, once the RSS has obtained enough intelligence to do so, they “call in the cavalry”; e.g., conduct a series of raids (coordinating with the Fleet in many cases) to capture the leaders and assets of the organization. Once beheaded in this way, the organization collapses.

But to be effective, such operations must be perfectly coordinated and executed, in pretty much every way, across possibly dozens of star systems. Otherwise you risk giving advance warning to the most important targets, allowing them to escape. Thus, an operation of the kind @Arrendis suggests to deal with the Kruellfor and Angel menaces would require a large amount of additional resources, in addition to those already used to infiltrate the two organizations; these are the resources that I claim the RSS cannot spare at the moment. In contrast, the plan the RSS is following now, which is to keep the Kruellfor fighting the Cartel to ensure neither organization gains too much power, requires only a minimal investment of resources beyond those needed to support the RSS agents who have already infiltrated these two organizations.

[Arrendis]

Poor baby.

[Arrendis]

@Johann_Bererund

Thus, an operation of the kind @Arrendis suggests to deal with the Kruellfor and Angel menaces would require a large amount of additional resources, in addition to those already used to infiltrate the two organizations

This is only true if you’re attempting an ill-advised fatal blow against the two. If, instead, what you’re looking to do is disappear key assets and make it look like they were killed by the other side while you use them to gain even more actionable information… not so much.

@Johann_Bererund

In contrast, the plan the RSS is following now, which is to keep the Kruellfor fighting the Cartel to ensure neither organization gains too much power

This does not require, and should never involve active cooperation at any level even remotely likely to be publicly perceived as ‘The RSS is helping X group’. That should not happen. Ever. Full stop. And it has.

[Elsebeth_Rhiannon]

@Arrendis

This does not require, and should never involve active cooperation at any level even remotely likely to be publicly perceived as ‘The RSS is helping X group’. That should not happen . Ever. Full stop. And it has .

Quoted for truth.

[Gaven_Lok_ri]

@Arrendis

When referring to sovereign political entities, Lord Chapter Master, it generally behooves those who wish to be taken seriously to use the proper name such entities choose to identify themselves with.

The Minmatar Republic died in YC110. Calling the new government of the Rebel Provinces by that label and acting as if they are the same entity is absurd.

[Arrendis]

However I may feel about the Shakorite regime, Lord Chapter Master, to engage in petty attempts of mislabeling would be, and is, unworthy of you, or anyone else. You are behaving like She Who Shall Not Be Named.

[Elsebeth_Rhiannon]

WIth respect, I agree here. The current government still uses the name, and it is their chosen name; it would be respectful to use it if you use a name for the state.

It is easy to go around it by using ‘Shakor’s government’ or ‘the current Republic’ without being disrespectful and spiraling into petty semantics.

[Gaven_Lok_ri]

The Rebel Provinces is the formal name that Amarr uses for the region, so I certainly will not be changing that usage. I might consider using a different label than Tribal Oligarchy to describe the current rebel government, if a good enough argument for what would be a more accurate label presents itself. “Shakor’s Government” seems too reductive to a single person given the Tribal structure he established while effectively a dictator.

And I am going to continue to be precise in my labeling regardless of whether my enemies find it “disrespectful” or “petty.”

Edit: But this is all off the topic of the abuses of power that are happening within the Rebel Provinces, so I won’t continue to engage with arguments about proper verbiage for that government here.

[Siroberon]

There are times I find myself wondering…

“I was liberated for this?”

[Elsebeth_Rhiannon]

@Gaven_Lok_ri

regardless of whether my enemies find it “disrespectful” or “petty”

There are some of your kind who like to affect to be my friend, and those who know they are not, and some of your kind who value being decorous and those who do not.

These two qualities do not correlate pretty much at all.

Maybe I had you in the wrong quadrant.

Not that it matters.

[Johann_Bererund]

@Arrendis

This does not require, and should never involve active cooperation at any level even remotely likely to be publicly perceived as ‘The RSS is helping X group’. That should not happen . Ever. Full stop. And it has .

I don’t see a way around this. The Cartel has its own spies—if the RSS helps the Kruellfor against them they will find out. Better for the RSS to not try and hide what it is doing, than to let the Cartel reveal the details of the operation and spin it as propaganda to serve it purposes. And yes, at this stage hurting the Cartel and helping the Kruellfor are effectively one and the same, given that, for reasons explained previously, the RSS currently don’t have the resources to hold any ground they take from either organization.