As we all remember, after Niarja fell everybody and their dog knew that Amarr was going to die as a trade hub. But now that the dust has settled, let’s take a look at it.
First, this is from July MER, before Niarja happened.
Aand here’s September MER, as we all remembered the hisec was sundered in August so during this period there was no quick and safe route between Amarr and Jita.
As you can see, trade in Domain has gone up almost by 50%, and the same has happened in Sing Liaison. So much for everybody moving their business to Jita.
Exaggerated is quite a strong word. Amarr is still not “thriving”.
It would be quite interesting know, however, where these additional 10T market value comes from. It’s not in Amarr itself, that much is for sure. Educated guess: The value is in overpriced items like CN Antimatter L or CN Plutonium L (which is not available at all in Amarr safe for a few scraps). Only 1 Brutix on the market in Amarr until 2 minutes ago. And those are just a few things. Recently, Amarr sold out of Warp Disruptor IIs and Warp Scrambler IIs. Very healthy.v
this is exactly wrong way how CCP determines the value of the mined ore. Taking Delve as an example, the volume of ore has fallen several times since last year. But as prices have risen, CCP says: “Look, everyone is still mining”.
So you would not only have to look at the ISK Market value, but also what it represents.
PS: If CCP would determine all sell/buy items in a trade hub against a fixed internal price, one could then make more reliable statements.
PPS: Just like the quantity of PLEX trades. We are currently at 1.1-1.4 million per day, and still 6-10 months back at over 2.0 million PLEX per day. A good trend? At least you can analyze it reliably, because the quantity is known and not just trading value
It is interesting to compare Amarr with Jita on the same basis:
Both have seen a drop in sell orders over the last six months, Amarr by in the region of 20%, Jita by 30% or so. I would be interested to know where that trade had gone: though the latest economic report seems to support the idea that it’s driven by a reduction in production rather than a relocation.
Subjectively that meets my feeling that the general profitability for a manufacturer/producer has increased (I’m in the T2 business, and that feels up on six months back).
The changes over the last couple of months are definitely changing the markets. Changing, not killing - if you can adapt to the change you are going to be fine - if you are still playing Eve from five years ago then welcome to 2020. There are oddities: Tritanium is 8.10/unit in Amarr, 9.24/unit in Jita, but that’s going to be geographically caused.
Handwavingly and with no empirical evidence: the recent changes have made New Eden larger in terms of travel time and that will drive a greater differentiation between the markets: the cost of hauling (time or ISK) has gone up. I am seeing more Freighters transiting throught Mehatoor than before Nairja fell - that was visible within hours of Nairja becoming a blockage, so the trade is still happening.
Predictions: We are moving to a wider distribution of trade: the larger hubs will take larger hits. The smaller hubs will thrive as people use them in preference to dozens of jumps to larger hub. Traders will feed these emerging markets to sustain their profits.
Heaven knows what will happen long term for the manufacturers (like me) balanced between needing to buy materials and sell products. But so far, it’s not looking too bad; though the product market tends to trail the materials in an unpleasant way as old stock is cleared out.
I’ll adapt.
Anyone who thought Amarr would die from the fall of Niarji was a damn fool. Amarr was a minor trading hub because it was so close to Jita. Many people would just take the extra jumps to Jita for the cheaper price.
Now, ita definitely not worth it to take the extra jumps. So, Amarr has become a bigger trading hub as a result.
If I was the CEO of an industrial corp at the time of the fall, I would have immediately moved operations to Amarr to cash in before others did.
Amarr has not become a bigger hub. Quit the contrary, it keeps losing item variety and that recent spike in value can very likely attributed to other things than a growing market.
Because maybe there is a war going on in the Galactic south? Remember, Brave Newbies was worried about the fall because it cut their supply line to Jita…
