It is interesting to compare Amarr with Jita on the same basis:
Both have seen a drop in sell orders over the last six months, Amarr by in the region of 20%, Jita by 30% or so. I would be interested to know where that trade had gone: though the latest economic report seems to support the idea that it’s driven by a reduction in production rather than a relocation.
Subjectively that meets my feeling that the general profitability for a manufacturer/producer has increased (I’m in the T2 business, and that feels up on six months back).
The changes over the last couple of months are definitely changing the markets. Changing, not killing - if you can adapt to the change you are going to be fine - if you are still playing Eve from five years ago then welcome to 2020. There are oddities: Tritanium is 8.10/unit in Amarr, 9.24/unit in Jita, but that’s going to be geographically caused.
Handwavingly and with no empirical evidence: the recent changes have made New Eden larger in terms of travel time and that will drive a greater differentiation between the markets: the cost of hauling (time or ISK) has gone up. I am seeing more Freighters transiting throught Mehatoor than before Nairja fell - that was visible within hours of Nairja becoming a blockage, so the trade is still happening.
Predictions: We are moving to a wider distribution of trade: the larger hubs will take larger hits. The smaller hubs will thrive as people use them in preference to dozens of jumps to larger hub. Traders will feed these emerging markets to sustain their profits.
Heaven knows what will happen long term for the manufacturers (like me) balanced between needing to buy materials and sell products. But so far, it’s not looking too bad; though the product market tends to trail the materials in an unpleasant way as old stock is cleared out.