The Rise and Fall in Bitcoin Value

Communications Center Out Of Pod Experience
1043

And this is where we have all been manipulated into thinking Bitcoin is something that can make people rich and never have to work again, the reality BTC was designed to be a stable currency that can not be duplicated under any circumstance and have a limit to the amount that is available.

If you can’t see how a currency which can’t be duplicated would be useful and you classify it as gambling when it’s not what further point are you trying to make?

Facts are facts, none of us can change that. BTC will be good serving the world as a reserve currency which holds a stable value as long as no one is trying to become rich from it.

All you’ve really done is this thread is follow hype and you dont want to let go of the view BTC = gambling when there really isn’t any comparison.

If someone tells me about something and I put all my money into it without a solid understanding then I am the one at fault and the person I gave my money to is a conman of sorts. If I’m told information and I believe it without investigation or verification then I would be gullible which is no ones fault but my own.

Buddy, just be careful what you believe and investigate something fully before committing to an opinion , the facts are governments and bankers want you to ignore BTC and remain confused about it,

if that is the case then you will only use fiat money, you wont be aware that you can freeze fiat value for a period of time so that way you will need more fiat money and due to their printing and lowering the value, you get a credit card or a loan or overdraft and then they got you in their system and may find it hard to get your head above water.

So don’t be rash with your judgement, go ahead and buy £20 worth of BTC and do the experiment I did, see for yourself with your own money how long you can freeze the value of that £20 and analyse the results you get. We must learn different ways of survival in a world full of turmoil.

Think about it, they have done this because their energy cost is higher, their rent/mortgage is higher, food, clothes, literally everything they need has got more expensive so they thought “hey, i’ll draw out the money I have in BTC and pay the extra bills” If they brought the BTC at the overhyped price yes they will do this.

The same will go for most other stocks and investments, whatever company they invested in wont be doing too well in a poor economy so they may decide to sell their stocks and hold onto the money to cover the price rise of everything.

So you’re perfectly fine with record levels of fiat money being printed which lowers the value of the fiat money you have? I’m not. Come on man we have to make a stand, burn a fire upon certain bad practices.

My passion is for the little guy to keep climbing higher to the top, based on some facts I’ve gathered I believe BTC can assist.

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1044

It’s not stable; Its’ worse than the EUR fiat you keep warning me against.

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It was made as a currency, but is legaly adopted as an asset class. Not a currency. Except in El Salvador.

BTC is a digital asset, like a stock. However stocks are subject to regulatiosna dn BTC is not hence why it’s the favorite of scammers. No rules, no holds barred demand and offer.
Speculation is gambling, the crypto investors are just young people thinking they will get rich quick and won’t have to work. Driving Lambos. Still waiting for them to do that.

Weren’t you saying you don’t promote BTC?

I guess the drops were more like “Oh no, another Billion scam imploded.”

  • Celsius Network, a major US cryptocurrency lending company, Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, paused bitcoin withdrawals,in June 2022. They have no power, the people have! Wrong, teh people don’t, the banker’s have. But okay, it’s called exchange instead of a bank.

  • China’s continued crackdown on crypto is playing a part too. And there has also been speculation that crypto operations could come to a halt in Russia. And the BRICS countries are planning on a currency to counter the IMF’s to avoid sanctions, no longer need for a private coin.

  • May 2021, Tesla boss Elon Musk said that the electric car maker would no longer be accepting digital payments over concerns about. One company, causing a big dip.

  • June 2021, banks and payment institutions in China were told to stop enabling crypto transactions, and the Chinese government banned the mining of the currencies. Then in September 2021, all crypto transactions were declared illegal, in effect meaning that the likes of bitcoin were banned. THE HALVING WAS CHANGED TO MAKE UP FOR THAT LOSS OF MINERS. Scroll up, no mention of this in the statistic of halving Karak presented. Strange, right? Or smoke and mirrors?

August 2021, UK regulator the Financial Conduct Authority in effect blacklisted Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges. Big banks such as HSBC(they were hoping to be in on the BTC scam but they got told by the government to stop comitting crimes and from that point on it was safe to critisize them, lol.) and Santander followed suit by blocking customers from making payments to Binance.

These companies causing issues for Bitcoin to be taken seriously.

There is a change coming but I’m not going to stand in it’s way. Forces are building up. I hope for the best, but I expect the worst.

That’s an awesome idea. Let’s hope so but I think it has been burnt too much.

1045

Already discussed, the people who mistakenly thought BTC would make them rich or that they would get 20% profit on their investment are leaving BTC, the Do Kwons and the Celsius type company are done and this is what can be clearly seen in your graph.

I’m happy with the current price as it represents the realistic use of BTC, a person can say “hey i’d like to freeze the value of this £50” and do so with the current BTC value we see now.

That looks like a dodgy downward trend on the Euro there, if it continues it’s value decline at this rate it won’t be worth anything by this time next year.

From my perspective the favorite seems to be hacking the actual person and tricking them into giving cash, bank, or crypto details. If a scam tricked someone with the tax office phone scam who the hell cares if it was fiat or crypto scammed from them? the mark took a loss and that’s that.

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1046

The economic health is in decline. We all know. BTC does not change that. But you can use BTC to invest in as a risk asset, not as a currency.

1047

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The person that can get away with it? The one who dislikes the 3-7 days wait for his payment. It’s a booming and expanding business, that damage the trust in crypto a lot.
It’s strange how you keep on saying “fiat is used to defraud people!” and I will answer you, okay but our government supports fiat as legal tender, and not crypto. That’s the difference, being the up and coming 3rd player now, as BTC were second but then the BRICS countries proposed a coin and made BTC 3rd place in the race. Says enough of the power of government and will have some consequences for it to become anything. The CAR will be under the influence of the west or the east, either way, crypto might not be a solution or even generally adopted due the the energy issues and internet issues. Like in El Salvador, it’s generally the dictator and some of his privileged friends who like to be not affected by sanctions.

Just google crypto, you get lots of exchanges shown , most of them being under investigation by the SEC; do you think people look that up? DO you look up if the bank you get a loan is in conflict with a regulator? Yes, if it’s a “PRIVATE” bank. ( India to Inject $2 Billion Capital in Four Weakened State Banks - Bloomberg ) India throws 2 billion into the banks, to stimulate loaning and HOPE for economical recovery after covid-19. Maybe they could go full BTC and just let those banks file for bankruptcy. Printing money is a tool, often used wrong but it gives a chance to economical recovery. BTC does not, at all fix anything. It’s just an asset, in which people could put money in and it increased in value, until the moment it collapsed from 60k to 30k and now it’s below that, a lot. Unlike EUR.

1048

You have an extremely poor understanding of what BTC is if you believe this crap. I already said BTC assists fiat, so why would anyone try to get rid of fiat? I don’t even think you know the point of your convo. Nobody is going to do what you suggested here it is stupid and lacks any sort of common sense when compared to the initial points you’re responding to.

BTC has a value vs fiat currencies around the world, acknowledge this fact and develop a good understanding of it as it gives a massive gargantuan clue as to BTC’s real function, You’re not going to get your own way in this convo and you will have to present common sense yourself based on the facts if you’re unable to do this then the convo is over.

A high value for BTC was never the goal, it’s function within society was the goal and now the worst types of investor have mostly left BTC we will see how BTC was supposed to function.

I’m not getting too comfortable with this price, I do believe Do Kwon and Celsius and 3AC are still holding large amounts of BTC which will affect the value once their business plans totally fail. I think the BTC value will be around £12k to £14K when this happens.

1049

You should tell that to Karak Terrel. With the posts about how BTC would be legal tender one could assume you were believing of replacement of at least of large portion of fiat in the economy. But I guess you started to realize that even in El Salvador, BTC is a tool for the rich to play with. You make money by printing it and when it’s last coin will ever be mined, you make money with transaction fees.

You do understand that it’s a little confusing when Karak and you are posting the exact opposite statements about BTC?

1050

No it isn’t. Even the SEC considers Bitcoin a commodity. Most other crypto assets however are indeed securities: SEC Chief Gary Gensler Says Many Crypto Tokens Are Securities

Bitcoin, for example, is considered a commodity under the Commodity Exchange Act. But there are thousands of other coins in the ecosystem, and Gensler said many of them should be considered securities for the purposes of regulatory oversight.

Yeah it’s an unregulated “bank”. Like regular other banks it was mismanaged and lost the money of their customers on speculation. It will either go poof and the people who took the risk by lending them their Bitcoin will lose money or it gets bailed out by a private organization. Unlike a normal bank, it’s not the tax payer who has to pay the bill of the gamblers and the people who take unreasonable risks.

Banks are not required with Bitcoin and you should not give them your coins. The first thing you learn when using Bitcoin is literally “not your keys, not your coins”.

Yeah, fascist regimes and politicians are not really fond of Bitcoin, as it gives the power they have over them back to the people.

Here is an illustration of the current Bitcoin situation in China:

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He didn’t. Elon Musk moved the price several times, because it triggered bots that trade on news. But it wasn’t big moves, and they always completely reverted within an hour. The big moves are for various reasons, like it had a crazy 600% rise within half a year, a correction is what naturally follows. And now it pretty much follows the stock market, because it’s traded by institutions as a risk-on asset. We will see if it decouples again.

Here is an info graphic about the actual Elon Musk situation:

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Yeah, nothing changed about the halving. But I’m interested if you actually know what you are talking about. Please elaborate what you actually mean.

Well, they are shitcoin casinos. I think the intermingling of Bitcoin with crypto is holding it back yes, but maybe we have to go trough a few more cycles for people to see the difference.

Bitcoin certainly doesn’t care. It keeps on working, tick tock next block.

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1051

Don’t screw with what I say please? I posted that graphic to show that Bitcoin still follows it’s regular trend and that nothing has changed. Just because volatility is to the upside doesn’t mean that this is a goal, it’s just what happens because more and more people use it as money, and because it’s a fixed supply of 21mil BTC, the price goes up as a consequence.

This will not go on forever. It will become less volatile and more stable over time, until it is a stable currency.

So the goal is not to go up, but to become stable money

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1052

I referred to this :

But apparently the energy crisis made the difficulty drop.

I know halving is the reduction of rewards for mining BTC, but if the difficulty drops, you get a reward for less effort, so it’s like “adapting the rewards”. It’s devaluating the currency, well I guess it as as you shown in the above graph it’s value goes up due to only those with a good energy price deal and low costs can keep on printing. However, some people are printing in the red, which is an economical disaster if BTC does not keep growing. Kinda like how Keyneans believe one dollar spent creates more than one dollar in economical growth but I can be wrong here.

I think if we see a lot of changes in the difficulty, it indicates the miners opting out, which is an issue for the future. As I said a long time before, there is no reason for anyone outside the cheapest energy locations to mine BTC. But still it happens, on the hopes of an ever inflating value. But then the guy who does that says the opposite so I am confused if he’s really making a profit on the mining. I guess it’s a hobby, or so.

1053

There are currently ~900 BTC per day (6.3 BTC every block every 10min) that can be mined. This can slightly vary as miners go offline or come online. But every 2016 blocks, the protocol adjusts the difficulty to bring the block time back to an average of 10 min.

Mining is basically an auction for those 900 BTC per day. As the price drops, the most inefficient miners go offline first, increasing the rewards the others have to share amongst them. This will continue until all the remaining miners are profitable again.

There is an enormous pressure on the miners to become ever more efficient. So they seek out the cheapest energy they can get. More and more this drives all of them towards curtail energy of renewables, which makes both the grid this renewables operate on more stable (Bitcoin mining is highly dynamic load) and the renewable power plants more profitable.

Non of that changes the halving. It will still be exactly 210000 blocks after the previous one. It will slice that reward in half, so only ~450 BTC can be mined per day. This usually causes a supply shock as the stock to flow ratio rapidly changes, which causes this four year cycles. They will fade over time.

I basically just wrote down the whole monetary policy of Bitcoin, and we could go on and extrapolate that however far into the future you like. You can see it in the code that this is actually how it works.

Contrast this with the monetary policy of the central banks, who are decided behind closed doors by people who have not been elected by the public. Who wrote insane amounts of money into existence out of nothing, denied that this will cause inflation although every sane person could see that it without a doubt would. And now they reverse course and plunge the whole economy into recession to fight the inflation they caused.

This is why Bitcoin was invented in the first place. Those people in the central banks don’t know what the hell they are doing. Their models are flawed, they have repeatedly shown to not work and make the situation even worse.

The cause is extremely simple: Fiddling around with the money supply distorts or get’s rid of important feedback loops in the market that would correct itself. Central monetary planing has the same flaws as central production planing has, and it’s unsustainable.

1054

I hope so, I am still waiting for more information on how the BTC farming with the natural resources in El Salvador is going. Because it’s very silent on that front. Bukele is buying the dip with huge losses, why would he,mining BTC would be far more profitable… but we don’t have all the information. In my opinion, in the end what will remain are the BTC farms located near natural electricity plants (solar, wind, water) but until now, it didn’t go that way. And more interestingly you said it would be more profitable for an electricity company to sell the electricity than to mine it into BTC, which is kinda worrying me a lot. Because it would seem that BTC is not economically viable then. But I might have wrongly concluded that.

It’s a group of people that will assume how the market has evolved, and will probably evolve into. It’s very difficult to predict the futere. But I think BTC will force an an-cap influenced economy instead of a social-democratic influenced economy. But this is just theory. We don’t know how it will evolve.

I understand this from a pure economical perspective, but…

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…imagine the consequences of it. It’s currently bad, but it would be worse if the economy would be left to its own and anything economically not viable would be destroyed fast and hard. Everything needs a a little human touch.

1055

What you are missing is that even today, an insanely huge part of the electricity that is produced can not be utilized and is effectively waste energy. Especially renewables have this problem. So all that will happen is Bitcoin monetizing a niche in the electricity market that wasn’t monetized until now. Should be pretty clear that this will make electricity prices cheaper for everyone when the power plant gets more efficient by avoiding waste. This already starts happening, and it will make renewables easier to integrate into the grid and at the same time decentralize mining a lot.

Yeah, I’m not convinced it will. I know a lot of Bitcoiners expect this, but I have encountered no good arguments for it. Just because we can make this work for money because we discovered something that lets us do money without a central entity doesn’t mean this works for anything else.

Again, I’m not a libertarian, I want to live in a social and federal direct democracy. I think it’s our moral duty to help the less fortunate and I would say that even apart from the moral argument it makes perfect economical sense. Because if you don’t have a social safety net and don’t try your best to reintegrate people into society you will inevitably have a problem with criminality that has a far greater toll on your economy than what you spend on social security. So I see this as an investment that is at the same time the right thing to be, kinda the best kind of investments.

It’s currently bad because there are people fiddling with the money. In my opinion, they make it worse not better.

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1056

Just watched this. Very interesting charts about the current situation and how it’s going to unwind

1057

You just don’t seem to understand that as time goes by more fiat will be required to buy 1 BTC for example. You even posted a graph that depicts the Euro losing value over time. Why don’t you understand that if the value of a fiat goes down then you need more of it to buy whatever it is you want?

BTC can still be used as legal tender, just like many countries use a couple of different fiats.

No, I don’t think BTC is a tool just for the rich. Evidently it’s not due to lots of rich investors losing the value of the BTC recently.

Your problem is you can only see the here and now, fyi there will be a 10 years later and a 20 years later and a 30 years later.

I said earlier for you to acknowledge the fact BTC has a VS against all other fiat currencies, If those fiat currencies didn’t exist then how would the value of BTC be determined?

The Euro value could keep going down and eventually be worth 0.01, it will still have a value and that value will be measured against BTC, so you will need more euros to buy 1 BTC as the value of the Euro falls.

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1058

Here is how that looks. USD going to zero vs Bitcoin.

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There is still a long way down. It’s not a straight line though.

And yes, it’s again a log chart, get over it

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1059

It’s ok lol, you are now using it to show what it’s intended to represent.
Those things happen, and more diversity in coins will be used in governments reserves. Like I said before, the BRICS are setting up their alternative monetary reserve currency.
I’m pretty sure there are things of value - probably most items- that will show the exact same graph.

Not sure how you are in debt if you can predict financial situations over 10 years (or more but the 10 year is already fantasy).

It has the same value of a https request. It’s like an NFT of that. :wink:

Those points aside, I’m going to watch that youtube link now.

1060

So what are you trying to say, there won’t be a 10 years time? With many things you can speculate on the future based on whats happening currently.

We discussed the decline in value of the Eur and Usd but you seem oblivious that their value loss is concerning. I’m really not sure what you expect to magically happen to turn things around but the evidence is very clear, fiat currencies are struggling badly.

You’re running out of arguments so you think insults will help your points.

1061

The irony is that it depends on your knowledge whether it is an insult or not.

Your answer says enough about your understanding of the situation you are trying to explaining me. But I’ll be here, BTC is a fun thing to talk about.

1062

It matured in 2021, but it’s not going up. The next halving is on it’s way; BTC holders are panicking, and a new thing is on it’s way. Can you elaborate on what new prices you’ll get for mining BTC? AT least that will be something positive… :wink:

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Meanwhile at your national bank ;

Maybe they will fork BTC into BTC-UK ? :smiley: