The Rise and Fall in Bitcoin Value

Communications Center Out Of Pod Experience
1063

I’m not sure how a currency can “Mature” in financial terms, the current value is one that the currency exchange sets. But you only see it as an investment while completely ignoring it’s other properties so it’s no surprise you see it this way when in reality it’s just exchanges adjusting the value to match supply/demand.

So lots of people buying BTC and exchanges struggling to supply BTC will drive the value of BTC up, this is not Maturing, but hey feel free to think it is.

I asked Google: What does maturing mean in finance?

In finance, maturity refers to the date on which the principal balance of a loan becomes due and payable. It also refers to the date when a bond pays off its principal with interest.

So the BTC value rise in 2021 had nothing to do with Maturing. It’s not a loan, it is a currency.

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1064

Those 2 steep red drops, below where it says “TradingView” It would be interesting to know exactly what was happening in the economy around that time, like how much usd had just been printed, I’m assuming it was a time period close to the end of the pandemic?

1065

But how do they do that, does one exchange give more for BTC than another? That should not be the idea. They should just charge high fees? For their work. Also, BTC will probably go up as I read an article that Binance will require KYC and thus some people will never ID and that money is stuck. like German world war 2 gold in swiss Banks. As the exchange own those BTC, they can trade with it if it’s considered “sleeping BTC”.

Probably Biden trying to correct the purchase problem with printing money. It is not such a bad thing as theft was legalized up until $1000 as I recall. Which wasn’t a good thing for the economy either.

1066

BTC is not currency, but a highly speculative asset, no matter how will people call it. If it looks like a duck… maybe called coin, but it doesnt look like money. It isnt stable store of value. Its very unstable as its speculative asset, and it will remain such thing, because its nature is such, its scarce, its value is not set by enothing else but auction and its not backed by anything, means you cant exchange it for anything if people dont want, contrary to money which you must by law accept as legal tender in exchange for something. By being stable you can plan budgets around its value, give people wages etc, whole economy runs on it.

You know it will never be a currency. There may be central bank digital currencies.

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1067

This is just the Bitcoin chart flipped on it’s head :slight_smile: . So this two “dumps” are actually the first bullrun in 2013 after the first halving. I’m not sure if there is a correlation to something happening in the wider market or with the dollar, but it may just be that Bitcoin was traded for the first time on exchanges and where available to more people. Previously you had to mine them or know someone who had them.

I know, the purpose of this question will probably be completely lost to you, but anyway, answer me this: How is the value of the dollar set and what is it backed by?

Bonus question:
How hard is it to create a dollar and how hard to create a Bitcoin?

Yeah true. It’s just that one day, Bitcoin will be more stable than any fiat currency we have today. It just takes a while to spread and as it spreads it’s value remains volatile

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1068

Lightning node profit is usually a few pennies per month at best. On average, the gear necessary to run a node will cost between $200 and $400. Configuring it is an art, yet considered ‘afk’ income.

I am not convinced people will work for free, why would people set something like this up? 0.02 USD per month not taking into account 24/7 power consumption probably low but still… how can it run on voulonteers throwing money at it with a certainty of loss. All this during an energy crisis (not the first or last).

It makes no sense, something profitable is going on though…

1069

Well there are different kind of use cases for a lightning node. There are apps for your mobile phone that are nodes. They are certainly not difficult to run.

The dedicated node on a $200 dollar Raspberry Pi where you connect from a thin client app over tor is maybe a bit more tricky, but not hard to run with something like https://umbrel.com/ . But it’s like the ultra-deluxe self hosted version where you depend on zero other services, even those who don’t require trust. It’s like running an email server.

But what you are probably speaking about is a routing node, that provides liquidity. Those are the ones that provide a service to the network and that need to run profitable. And we are talking about a network that isn’t even used that much yet. Apparently a well run node is already profitable but it requires a lot of knowledge to run one this way.

Those people who are build up their routing node now will be in a very comfortable position when the network takes off. A lot of people are positioning themselves right now, it’s a bet on it being successful. But just to be clear, this is probably not something you will run at home as a hobby, this will be a job that requires a lot of special technical skills.

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1070

Say what you like, it still has the properties of money. like the worldwide BTC money transfer network, It’s ledger that can’t be changed, it’s vs value against other currencies, the fact it can’t be duplicated is a property that has never been seen before in any currency.

The only real problem is that people with views like yours seem to ignore this never been seen before feature of non duplication. The very fact that a currency exists in the world which can’t be duplicated will be marked in history and it really is a shame that you refuse to see the benefit of this.

You can say that BTC isn’t stable and you would be somewhat right, but the reason for this is that we have been manipulated on BTC, too many of us thought we could double our money which was false and this has left people bitter and angry. BTC on it’s own does not have these rules that you can’t withdraw it as and when you please, the Do Kwons involved in BTC have made it like this not the actual creators of BTC.

Stop letting others control how you view BTC.

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1071

Also we must understand in order for something to have a value it must have a function, BTC isn’t short of functions, once those functions are understood by society we can have “the people’s currency” for real, no fantasy, no dream but the real deal.

You and I know nobody is going to invest in “nothing” or something that does nothing or has no purpose or function, let’s level with each other here.

You say BTC is an asset and you are right it can be used as a sort of asset, so on some level you acknowledge it has some use by referring to it as an asset since we are both agreed that no one pays good money for “nothing”.

If we analyse further and look at the concept of “money” we get to understand that it is a type of system normally given to us by an authority of sorts. What I wish to understand is Why do we think the method of money given to us by an authority is the only way to conduct a transaction? Why do we find anything outside of what is “normal” bad? and also why are we quick to accept other people defining what is “normal”?

This is really deep when you check it.

1072

I would think it is similar to how other VS prices for fiat to fiat are determined, Your perspective of BTC value would be different from mine because you are in France using eur and I am UK using pounds, I think if we do a calculation with what 1 BTC costs in Eur and what it costs in pounds we will get the current exchange rate for Eur vs pounds, BTC seems to insert itself nicely and be a type of bridge between currencies.

BTC - USD = 20,799.40
BTC - GBP = 16,961.18
BTC - EUR = 19,661.93

I took this snapshot at time of writing, it would seem GBP is the stronger fiat currency for the moment since you need less of it to buy 1 BTC.

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1073

So, the Bahreini Dinar is worth much more. :smiley:

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Economics aside, the higher price of £ would say that it is better for you to import than export.
I think the US economy looks slightly better than the UK economy, didn’t compare to France, lol.
US vs UK

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What is the economy behind the private bank of Satoshi? No one knows, probably why no one will know anything about him.

Also, the agreement to use USD as the standard after the second world war created a system promoting international trade and to restore the economies who were transformed for the military industrial complex. Then followed by teh baby boom which created more demand which created an expanding economy, but then numbers fell back down and here we are. If BTC can make babies, the next generation will be wealthy. The reason is that Keynian economics do require continous expansion which is funny and would be right if we went to other planets and made many more babies. But we didn’t we were ok with less nagging kids and staying on Earth. It’s a choice we made and blamed the boomers. Why do you think Roe vs Wade was overturned? An economical choice, not a criminal/social one. They know that if we don’t get a few million more people we will be in for a long time of inflation. I know BTC sounds good, but unironically “make babies” is how the system can continue. There is still a lot of space to live in on earth. Then there is the problem of automation, Musk likes to have automated factories to cut costs and raise consumer prices (maybe real life should be like EVE Online and insurance on cars should be on the resource values.) but this causes unemployment which is not a good thing. Unemployed people should be kept in some kind of job to make sure they don’t fall through the mazes of the economy.

1074

We know he’s an englishman. In some of the original threads he uses terms like “bloody awful” and other english phrases that are commonly spoken over here in UK. Satoshi may well be a group of people which seems more likely.

There is no private bank of satoshi,

In the UK unemployed people get jobseekers allowance which was recently changed to universal credit which covers housing and child benefits and disability benefits as well. To qualify for the benefits you must show you are actively seeking work and must provide evidence of this. The benefits are paid from tax money collected.

So if we look at this deeper we will see that when the consumer stops spending a handful of people lose their jobs, then the tax payer and consumer still has to pay towards other peoples unemployment. It was reported in the UK that supermarkets are taking 0.5% less money than they took in the last few months that 0.5% means they may have to sack some employees as the money isn’t there to pay them.

The same will go for banking, customers unable to pay back their loans due to job loss means less income for the bank, more people lose jobs,

If we stop buying cars then there’s no income for the car maker and their employees, more people lose jobs.

If steel contracts get cancelled because airlines aren’t buying new planes this year then more jobs are lost in aviation manufacturing and steel manufacture. And then less people going on holiday affects airlines, hotels, tourism,

It seems like everyone is in a battle to make supply match demand so they don’t overspend or have any wastage, I think you touched on this point earlier.

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1075

Silly, you can find that on google, as its not a secret how legal tender works:

Dollars are now backed by the U.S. government itself . As legal tender, the dollar is accepted for both public and private debts. The dollar’s value fluctuates with economic conditions and the federal government’s management of interest rates.

So they can set value to it, by printing more of it, or by interest rates, they can skim the surplus from economy by the power granted them by the PEOPLE. And PEOPLE can change it. Their faith lies in themselves, the choice they can make.

By how changable fiat is, power lies within it. Democracy. Of course you can change it to react to needs. But it needs correct treatment.
There are mechanism to make it stable, that are not available to BTC! BTC is not democratic, its algorithm you can compare in fact to a dictator with a small weewee (limited amount of tokens), and a big ego (look how powerful I am, just you wait!). Dictator that will stay itself on the same childish level of understanding the economy no matter how much you want him to GROW. It cant GROW. BTC will stay BTC. Its nature doesnt change, its only PEOPLE that can accept its flaws and profitability. Its like a deal with dictator who is completely unstable.

You can also see it being completely stuck in place it is now. Because there are reasons why it cant spread further than today, and there are reasons why it will still be treated as a speculative resource. Will YOU distribute your bitcoin to citizens of your country, even when they dont want it? Or maybe YOU will want your government to take bitcoin from YOU and distribute it?

Magical thinking if you ask me, that it will magically just spread. YOU have to do the spreading. You would have to distribute is as much as you can, now. Buy everything you need with bitcoin only. NOW. YOU will spread it. Without guarantee that it will ever be stable like dollar.

And to think that alone would make it stable, when you will see the economy being a live thing that evolves and forcing BTC into currency role is going to solve what exactly? Just buy bitcoin and leave fiat also? If fiat is still more stable, what will be the allure of BTC? Its just volatility that is alluring with it, and it will be kept volatile, because this way it can be more PROFITABLE.
Right now, will you wait like Bukele for it to wage on the decision of banks to give you loans in fiat? Because nobody wants to credit a gambler. Who will give him loans? You? Will you just give him all your bitcoin for it to take off? Or you just want to keep bitcoin so you want to have more stuff later? To MAKE IT.

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1076

The same mechanisms you speak of are working terribly and putting all of us in big problems.

In many countries if you don’t pay your taxes then it’s a 7ft tall and 16 stone man coming to pay you a visit to retrieve the tax payment. They will intimidate you and worry your family, they are authorised by a district judge to enter your home and take goods up to the value of the tax monies owed. But you want to type and claim this isn’t a dictatorship.

So basically you ignore the above what I just typed, and then you ignore the features of BTC, and then claim BTC is like a dictator?

1077

Because it isnt. They are legitimate forces. Their legitimacy comes from people who want it to be so. Because its democracy and you have law that was voted on. There is alternative and it isnt pretty, no matter how sugary it may be projected by some people, that it will be more fair, better for children, better for poor, or something like that.
Taxes are good. And taxes are needed. You want anarchy and everyone fending for himself or organized system where you can work in peace, protest, and have choice like personal default? System where you can be protected from bad people who doesnt pay taxes, want to get everything from you, who will take everything from you, do nasty things to you or your wife, or your children, or your parents, or your dog, and everything on your own eyes. Not everyone is backed by 7ft tall and 16 stone man with gun and most importantly more than only him, with tanks, armored cars, artillery, nukes, invisible aircraft, sattelites and UFOs.

1078

So the government gets it terribly wrong prints too much money which results in job loss, then they authorise banks to repossess homes of the people who default by force. Seems like somewhat of a dictatorship to me. If you have nowhere to go and barricade the door then you will be forcefully removed with all of your belongings put on the street.

Make no mistake if this decline continues you will see anarchy anyway and BTC will have absolutely nothing to do with it. You will see lots of homeless and hungry, you will see people who own homes but cant afford to heat it or power it. The system seriously isn’t in mine or your favour.

Not only that, you will also get a bad credit rating and find it difficult to rebuild.

Real talk, is this the system you are promoting?

1079

You are just antisystemic for some reason I see, maybe your subjective experience. But here in democracy YOU are part of the SYSTEM, and YOU can be better than THEM in this system. Stop complaining and start asking them questions what about it that you dont like, and if you hear something what is actually truth and realistic statement, try not to seethe at them, think logically, maybe you can do better. You will have to eventually discuss economy with people who work in the financial sector, who know more and who have more experience than we all here combined, who have AUTHORITY. Go to them and start asking questions, learn some things. They think, they can answer you, they are not algorithm. You can be the change you seek. Or are you only complaining and too lazy to care?

I am too lazy honestly and I have enough to not care.

1080

Ah, now we are getting to the truth. You’re just pretending to care about stuff to gain attention.

Actually I’m pro-systemic. Provide a system that is fairer to the little guy and I will be the one leading the way in people gaining an understanding of it.

And what exactly do you expect these people to tell you except more lies that only benefit them and not you?

Maybe you should just stop responding you don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. Seriously.

1081

I only have no reason to change the system that is not wrong to me, but you may have different experience, its your life. Maybe also that you demand more. But to demand you have to give something in exchange. I have in disregard people who will demand, but will not provide from themselves, they are not better than thieves.

I care mostly to say that BTC is gambling and stocks are gambling to some degree. Because I have seen people who lost that gamble.

What lies? Do you maybe write about predictions and analysts? Which ones then? Whats happening isnt a mystery, there are only different opinions. The fact that economy is always changing is not making it easy. The business of being a prophet was never easy.

managing finances of a country is like operating on a live organism, patient heart is beating and you are close to it. They pull the scalpel in one direction too far, thinking they will get the cancer out, and that may have serious consequences, and you have to act fast if bleeding is too big, because if you dont, the patient may live, but in a much worse condition. I cant describe it better.

And if you think crypto will heal everything, because it just will, in time, then you are not seriously thinking how complex the economy is, and about how complex human is.

1082

Nobody in this thread suggested it would. It might freeze the value of fiat currency for a period of time. Obviously not useful to you, but very useful to a million others.

Exactly, so why are you on a thread which is discussing an additional system that has some benefit to everyone?