Cancelled 14 Omega accounts.
No you can’t have my stuff. Giving it away to Brave.
Until CCP unfucks the game, I’m out
8 Likes
Truth is truth. EVE subscription rates are going down. Math is an exact science. Look at the numbers. Don’t give me it is just the summer fall off and Covid is the reason. Scarcity has destroyed my sandbox. Looking at the numbers I am fairly certain I am not alone. I dabbled in the WH/Null lifestyle and frankly found out with my real life schedule it was not as fun as going it alone. As a 56 y/o public service medical/safety employee who works a random shift with random days off. I enjoyed EVE as it was available 24/7/365. My point is I want to play on my schedule and not a group schedule. Especially during this UNHOLY covid pandemic. This makes me a poor candidate to fly with any alliance. No matter. I really enjoyed EVE Online. As a person who enjoys mining. I was more than happy to mine my Kernite and Omber in semi safety in High Security. I have done this for over 11 years! My HULK/HULK/ORCA gang allowed me to enjoy casual time off from work. I would build simple ships and sell them in a worst case scenario at cost. Usually at a 25% profit or better. Sometimes if I saw somebody selling ships for under mineral prices. I would buy them all. Hold them. Sell them later at a profit. I knew this SCARCITY day would come when I saw High Security moon mining. I get why WH/Low/Null became angry about it. I feel now they are rejoicing that us High Security people are taking it in the shorts! I mined the flawless Arkinor left behind occasionally by large groups. Most of the time it was other ORE scraps. I watched the ship price collapse because of the easy access to minerals. Again I understand the anger of the NULL/WH/Low players. Fight for control only to see someone do nothing and reap the same rewards.
Then I saw EVE start Incursions that pumped all sorts of STUPID amount of ISK into EVE. All sorts of fancy ships flew by me bought by PLEX and Incursion ISK! My game in my sandbox was threatened by that. I dealt with it. I figured EVE will correct this in balance. NOW I am told my mining of Kernite and Omber in High Security has wrecked the economic ecosystem in EVE ONLINE? What? How? It is implied that somehow the pilots complaining about Scarcity are botters! Are you kidding me? Personally. I am convinced this whole Scarcity is EVE’s way to force people to buy more PLEX!!!
Remember Pearl Abyss forked over 425 million to buy EVE online and no doubt want to see a return on their investment. No doubt in my mind for Christmas you will see MINERAL BUNDLES for only 4.99! I can’t speak for anyone else, but I will let my ■■■■ rot in hell, before I throw them away in Low/WH/Null for the enjoyment of some PVP skill injected PVP munchkin!
I WILL NEVER BUY PLEX OR USE REAL MONEY TO REPLACE THEM. MY SACRED WORD!!!
Now I completely accept the RISK and REWARD concept. Occasionally, I would donate a ship flying with the Spectre Fleet and it would get blown up. Sometimes, I would scan down High Security annomiels and mine them out of the more rare ore.
I would do the stale missions. (WHY EVE DOESN’T INVEST THE TIME UPDATING MISSIONS MAKING THEM ACT AS ANOMALIES IS BEYOND ME?) Imagine if EVE ONLINE put in 25% of the effort put into missions that was wasted on Captains Quarters, World of Darkness, Dust 514 and Valkyrie? How many more missions would we have? (After 11 years of doing mission running. I am starting to believe that Damsel in Distress I kept rescuing is really not the naive helpless woman she is advertised as!) Seriously, why missions do not escalate like anomalies is beyond me. EVE needs to promote SOLO play more if they want to survive. Why? Here is a NEWS FLASH for CCP!
I pay for my enjoyment; NOT A GROUPS!
Could you imagine missions escalating to Level 5,6,7 as rarely like anomalies escalate and the bad guys send in elite forces! If Missions escalated like that players would invite other players for help NATURALLY!!! Not the SHOTGUN WEDDING method that EVE is forcing people to do now to join together! EVE friendships would occur. The best ship in EVE is friendship. Going way back when missions were more random. A PVP giant tapped me on the shoulder to do a mining mission for him. A couple of days later. I was stuck unable to rescue that damn DAMSEL IN DISTRESS again! ( She has the gall to wear a white gown?) I asked for Military help from my new PVP giant friend and he gladly plowed the road for me! He showed me a fit. Knowledge and friendship gained. Ironically, he convinced me to come in and live in a wormhole. Fun times.
Ok I am done ranting. I miss EVE ONLINE dearly. But there’s nothing for me to do anymore. Give me a reason EVE so send you 360 bucks a year to entertain me. Suggestions to make the game more enjoyable.
A dedicated Discord channel for every system in EVE. Pilots could declare they are on that neutral channel. Again promote friendship or EVEN enemy fostering. Since it is a EVE Channel, maybe background advertising. Maybe not?
Let people combine ships. Example if I put two Dominixs together I would have a Superheavy Dominix with 185% Hit Points with one extra turret. Three together would have 235%. Four 270%. Five 300% ! The cost would be enormous for really not that much gain. But it would demand much more resources therefore promoting a natural inflation.
Spy stuff. If you look up somebody on EVE there is a 10% chance that player will be notified you looked him/her up. How does a player respond to you when you look them up? I would also have that person’s standings also be revealed by researching them. Is he/she an AMARR based player? Role playing opportunities.
What the hell happened to THE SCOPE news breaks. It really brought the game to life! Maybe CCP can farm that out. I look at youtube TIS ( Talking in Stations) and people could easily do it.
Finally, don’t be an asshat and ask for my stuff.
4 Likes
It still flattens out FFS. In simple trend stationary terms it would be best described as a a spline function. That is it was going up, then it flattens out for about the last year…let me show you.
Below are the results of a simple linear trend model starting from 10/1/20219 and running through 6/19/2021 (the last day in the MER).
Now, I add in a spline, that is I change the functional form to be a piece-wise continuous function - i.e. a linear trend and then a “spline” that accounts for a change in the trend. I started the Spline at the max ISK value of 1,104,554,942,057,400 on Nov. 14, 2020. The results are much better in terms of fit.
Notice the Adjusted R-Square, which measures who well the model fits the data, in your implied formulation of a simple linear trend is 0.557 (think of this as this model as explaining 55.7% of the variation in the data). In the linear trend model augmented with a spline variable we see that the Adjusted R-Square is 0.858 (or, this model explains 85.5% of the variation in the data). Clearly this is a superior fit. Further, note the value of the trend coefficients (green cells with the Trend descriptor). In the linear trend model it is much lower. Because a relevant variable is missing…the spline variable. So that changes the estimated coefficient and biases it downwards. The spline variable has a negative estimated coefficient meaning that since Nov. 14. 2020 the money supply has been shrinking each day by about an average of about 520 billion/day.
Here is a graph of the linear model. Note it tends to over estimate early on, then under estimates, the again over estimates.
The trend model is really…bad.
Now here is the trend model augmented with a spline variable.
Note that systematic “over-under-over” estimate problem is much less. There is still considerable movement around the two trends, but including more data dummies for days of the week and month could be included to see if those are minimized, but it likely would do nothing to change the fact that since about November 2020 the ISK supply is shrinking.
Wages are prices. If inflation is raising the general price level then it is likely raising wages too. Wages. Are. Prices. And there are no wages in game in any event.
sigh
sigh
big sigh
Entertainment is part of the benefit. Entertainment is benefit…or good thing…or welfare enhance…how ever you put it. It is part of the “the benefits” or as economists put it “the utility function” - and utility is just a shortened version of saying consumer welfare.
I don’t “lose money on Netflix”. That is a rather…well it is the same kind of logic the former President of a former Country in the Western part of the Northern hemisphere (and not Canada). There is no “loss” from Netflix because I was never buying it for profit, but to improve my well being. That is the value > cost…that isn’t a loss, that is a win/gain/etc. You could even call it “profit” in that the entertainment value is greater than the cost.
Those are not just bots. If they were I am pretty sure that CCP would be claiming victory, at least temporarily, by getting rid of ~10,000 bots.
Eve Offline has the data graphed all the way back. We. Are. Going. Backwards. And at a rapid clip. PCU is down to what it was just before I joined which is well over a decade ago.
Please stop sugar coating the turd.
@Teckos_Pech I will agree with your spline function if you wanted to go in two points from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020 as the upward trend and then finally a second trend from Q4 2020 to now, it is correct. It took one year to pull the economy down, and it has been correcting itself sense.
Agree on no wages in the game, but if activities were the wages, wages are going up, but disposable income is going down. If you are a ratter in low sec, wages have gone down. If you are a industrialist in high sec wages have gone up, but disposable income for the same activity a year ago has gone down.
I agree with what you are saying. And if correct I don’t understand your point then on how this is negative to the game, which is my point. You either enjoy the game or you don’t. You either enjoy Netflix or you don’t, once you don’t, stop paying to the subscription. I think this is how it works for most things in life.
CCP has been claiming victory it is in the Ecosystem Outlook on estimated accounts removed. I don’t think it is 10K either, but I think something you should consider, and it isn’t 0.
Have you checked out that PCU lately? There is a mad rush for Eve Online! This I think we both agree is a point in time, but not the downward trend to 0. I don’t think the game is dead, I think it is on the verge of getting new fresh players which is healthy and sustainable.
New fresh players? Or more accounts created by older multiboxing players to cover the missing ones? CCP won’t care either way but they are still losing alot of real, flesh and blood human players like me… and not once did I ever use a bloody bot… I used to report them when I could see them but now no-one talks to eachother in local except to spam it with stupid annoying adverts for their latest scam… that loss of community activity coupled with the recent rapid changes HAS caused alot of genuine players to quit who are now watching CCPs actions and waiting to see if they got the message… at the moment it seems they haven’t so they stay unsubbed watching just like me.
6 Likes
TIS is saying that everything is fine and ccp is doing great , there are a lot of guests in the show saying that why we should believe you and not ccp devs and tis?
Possibly, but why is that? Because of inflation? I don’t think so. It is possible that the cost increases are resulting in smaller profit margins. Those who are “pushed out” since they are no longer earning a profit, and even those who remain might see reduced margins. But again, this is due more to scarcity than an imaginary inflation boogie man, at least given that the money supply has been falling for about 9-10 months.
While I may not be losing money on my Netflix subscription CCP still needs to, at a bare minimum, meet its variable costs. And if it cannot meet its total costs as well eventually it will go under. A declining PCU is not good as it suggests players are walking away from the game. Some might not immediately suspend auto-renewed subscriptions, but eventually that money spigot will likely get smaller and smaller as the PCU shrinks. CCP, and especially the employees, are not doing their jobs because it enhances their welfare. They are trading their time for income that enhances their welfare. Take away that income…they’ll go elsewhere.
It looks like that downward trend may be bottoming out. Do not take that last increase to be anything other than short term “seasonality”. We see such spikes every single day in the graph you posted. The key question is will it rebound. I want it too, but I fear it won’t.
2 Likes
And just to hammer this home and make everyone who complains about the money supply feel really stupid…
Current money supply for characters: 1,036,623,353,259,770
That looks like alot, but the last time the ISK supply was at this level was in March 29, 2020. In other words, the ISK supply is…
MOTHER
F*KING
SHRINKING.
The money supply is shrinking.
You are correct @Teckos_Pech and I would like to take this opportunity to support CCP on continuous momentum fighting players that bot. This not only unbalances the economy it also supports RL organizations that don’t have ethical work places, in some cases.
And I agree here great job and we continue to move in the right direction and I think a few more months here and we will be on track for a healthy game for many years into the future.
Cheers,
Unsubbing 10 accounts. I’ll stick around as alpha until CCP gits gud.
5 Likes
Is this due to the ESS in null? Is ratting the only way ISK generated in Eve?
No, missions and certain loot drops (e.g. tags) sold to NPC agents are also creating ISK from thin air. Same is true for trading between NPC agents.
I am not that familiar with the ESS, it may very well be creating ISK. And yeah killing rats was the dominant method of injecting ISK into the economy. As @Meditril notes there are other methods and I believe some have become more significant as players react to changes CCP makes.
Oh, and a note here on that “players react to changes CCP makes”. That is quite similar to something Robert E. Lucas (Nobel Prize winning economist) stated,
Given that the structure of an econometric model consists of optimal decision rules of economic agents, and that optimal decision rules vary systematically with changes in the structure of series relevant to the decision maker, it follows that any change in policy will systematically alter the structure of econometric models.
What this is saying is the following…government policy is often based on economic models (econometric models where statistics and economics come together). And that people are behaving rationally and “optimally” under a given policy regime (in EVE terms think of this as the last update to the game…players see it and change their behavior to try and maximizing the results of their efforts), but once you go and change the policy regime people will change their optimal behavior and the econometric models policy is based on are no longer applicable. In EVE terms, whatever you thought you knew about what players were doing in the last update may no longer be relevant at all with the new update. The players have adapted.
Keep this in mind the next time somebody says, “EcOnOmiCs DoEsN’t ApPlY iN gAmE.” It may not apply in similar fashion, but the underlying ideas of marginal benefit vs. marginal cost, opportunity cost, etc…those all still hold.
3 Likes
The ess does not create isk, it applies a multiplier to you bounty rewards based on how many rats have been killed and how much destruction has occurred in the system. A portion of the bounty you receive is then placed into 2 banks, 1 of which pays out every 2 hours (if it has not been stolen) the other has to be released using a key which should be available after an upcoming update.
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