[IKAME] Semiki investigative work

Mr. Kaugan, while we are rightfully proud of what ARC has accomplished over these past years, a little bit of humility goes a great way in not overstating our capability, and in preserving our ability to recognize and adapt to evolving threat scenarios.

It is, for instance, reasonable to say we have a doctrine that we can employ in these scenarios. It is another thing entirely to say we’re sure of a viable defense. The very simple fact of the matter is that, with Doomsday weapons operational, many doctrines that might scale for effective engagement are no longer viable, especially when we at this point have no idea of the scope of the campaign.

That said, I would again like to thank the many pilots, both independent and from our partner and affiliate organizations, who were in Semiki yesterday evening with the intent to support the joint defense. While we were fortunate to avoid another Drifter attack, we don’t necessarily know what the Drifters intend at this point. It could very simply be that they were attempting to determine how many would respond.

On containment, I would add this: our practices and procedures are oriented toward research operations, and so I am not sure how useful they are for other circumstances. It certainly looks like the Case Red Gamma task force has greater capabilities they’re not disclosing, which is understandable given the circumstances. After all, after the first attack their scans of the reinforced Citadels seemed to resemble Elder Matshi Raish’s scan of Empress Jamyl I’s ship, which to our understanding was an Entosis Link used as by Lancers and Drifters. And they didn’t have Entosis Links fitted, per our scans.

Ms. Kim; you seem to be laboring under some misconceptions. For instance, the first noted Drifter autopsy was conducted by Dr. Tetsua and Dr. Starsurge, with assistance from Kybernetes Moros and Kalo Askold, and was declassified and disseminated by CONCORD itself. ARC’s much later work on the Hikanta Tyrannos and recovered Jovian corpses was lauded by the Sisters of EVE when they announced their Project Discovery initiative to crowdsource analytical work. I can only assume that this means that our methods pass muster, seeing as they don’t involve spark gaps, fog generators, dramatic lighting, or the other components of children’s show portrayals of mad scientists.

Winds. In reading from those old news articles, the pivot in CONCORD’s position is quite remarkable. From DED Director of Operations Arve Vesren: “given the vast numbers Drifter vessels that appear to be in service, it is best for the dissemination of information relating to their capability to be swift and all inclusive, so that organizations can prepare defense protocols and procedures, if required”.

Simpler times.

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I agree, it was viable under those circumstances, and those could well change. It looks like the Drifters have gone from all out attack to conspicuous absence. Although they could easily return in greater numbers. We don’t currently know what numbers, or where they are staging. They might simply be probing our defenses and capacity to defend.

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After taking a period of respite from yesterday’s tension and reviewing the behavior of both ARC - and partner/independent parties - I have come to several conclusions.

Yesterday was an act of conditioning on the part of the Vigilant Tyrannos. By establishing that assemblage of a substantial fleet and using it to assault and/or destroy a given target warrants a response from Capsuleers, they also determined that amassing a fleet and not assaulting a target warrants the assemblage of a Capsuleer fleet on our part, but no resulting battle will occur when neither side attacks.

Granted there were independent parties trying to gather the Apollo, Cassandra, Orion, Artemis, and Lancer vessels together to smartbomb them into oblivion, but they were not associated with the defending fleet, merely involved on their own and for their own reasons.

By establishing that gathering and attacking warrants a rebuke, and inversely gathering and not acting warrants opposing amassing but no acts, they have conditioned Capsuleers to act in accordance with their demands based on their actions.

In short, they are baiting us to make us do what they want, leaving them in advantageous positions and us on the back foot.

The next time they act similarly to the 14th and 15th, they will enact a third action that we will not immediately be prepared to deal with, some action that plays to their strength and advantages they have as a result of baiting us into certain behavior.

I can’t say with any certainty what this behavior might be, but an example comes to mind.

They may pull a similar stunt to the 15th and gather, but not act. At the same time as this, another allied force of similar strength may gather and assault a target or position of interest, leaving Capsuleers in a precarious situation.

With attention being divided, we will only be able to direct full focus onto one force at a time, and the Drifters will no doubt be able to complete their objectives if both forces cannot be countered at the same time.

At this time I doubt any CONCORD involvement would be expected unless they assault the Aliastra Warehouse or Zainou Biohazard Containment Facility, at which point I hope they unveil their secret counter-Drifter techniques, or else Capsuleers will be forced to choose a target to defend, and which to abandon.

This scenario is one of possible many that leaves me with unease, so we must develop a counter punishment as well. I leave the discussion open to solutions and possible counters.

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Teinyhr; apologies for having missed your inquiry! Indeed, no evacuation assistance is needed. However, your offer remains appreciated, and we’ll certainly seek assistance if the situation warrants it later.

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It’s all gone suspiciously quiet. What’s going on ? Or indeed, what is not happening ?

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It’s been quiet, Drifter wormholes went through the roof, and have now gone into quiet mode. To the extent the Drifters do not appear to be warping to the exits. We are still monitoring the situation. Work to defeat the virus is continuing, the people working on it seem to have it contained for now.

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Perhaps the Drifters have taken notice of CONCORD’s countermeasures they claimed to have tested and succeeded with in some capacity, and have pulled back in preparation for some form of major operation?

“counter-measures aimed at reducing Drifter capacities have been developed and, we can now report, are being rolled out with considerable success.” - Oveg Drust

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Regardless of that, remaining in the dark on why things have gone silent is not good for any of us. Whether they’ve pulled back or are just reinforcing their numbers for a push, we should remain aware and active for as long as possible.

I am starting to feel some strain from being so active, but I will endure.

I feel a shadow looming over our heads and it glows red with the singularities of the Triglavians. And I feel the first move will be made by them, and it won’t be a little opening.

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Apologies for the delays, pilot! The work is on-going, of course, though I’d wish there were more we could publish.

As it stands, an advisory document is nearly complete and should hopefully be released in the near future.

Additionally, I would like to laud the Watch and associated parties for clearing remote reservoirs of infection, making more viable the hardware-focused system clearance approach that we believe remains the most effective method of handling the crisis.

More soon.

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So how have things changed, following the communications from the Triglavians ?

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There are now Triglavian shipyards that seem to be producing dreadnought hulls, which can only be found as the last room of a T5, or Chaotic, filament. It does not matter what kind of filament, as long as it is Chaotic.

And the shipyards have devices that can be looted - once you pass the dozen or so Leshaks guarding the shipyard - which can in some fashion connect to the Triglavians’ network, and provide data and partial schematics of the dreadnoughts being built.

The whole state of affairs is troubling, since otherwise we are not communicating with them, they are communicating with us.

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Oh, goodie. Their battleships already hit like dreads, how heavy will these punch?

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Like frigates.

ALL the frigates. At once.

(Also, they might not be dreads.)

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Are you suggesting they skipped construction of a dreadnought hull and moved onto building a titan? For what reason do you suggest that?

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I’m suggesting that it could also be a carrier or force auxiliary, at that scale.

For that matter, the Trigs could be doing some kind of Faxnought.

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I’m not as well versed in Triglavian matters, but my understanding is that their use of rogue drones might lend itself to a carrier of some sort.

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Considering what we’ve seen from their previous ships, this is an intriguing possibility.

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Triglavians, for all of their Threes and Convocation stuff very much have shown that in ship design it is purely all inside one Clade. The Svarog design Svarog ships, the Veles design Veles ships, and so on. A break in tradition at this point is not impossible surely but there has been no hint of that.

Current thinking by myself and some others indicate due to the high Svarog presence at these construction sites, the ship in question is of Svarog design. Which based on previous indications of their approaches suggests a Dreadnought.

This is all still speculation but it is based on the best knowledge available.

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