Well, except that’s not quite accurate.
This weekend peaked at 30k users, right where the peak normally is. That’s been consistent with the Sunday peak during the Blackout, which has run from 29.1k to 31.8k. That’s a median weekend peak of about 30.45. Now let’s look at before the Blackout…
Immediately before:
June: 29.8-33.2 — Median: 31.5 So far, we’re looking good for your claim. Not perfect, but a single 3% fluctuation isn’t enough to get our knickers twisted if it comes back and hews closer to 30k. But you said ‘for years’… soooo…
May: 33.4-36.1 — Median: 34.75.
April: 30.8-33.4 — Median: 32.1
Mar: 34.2-36.3 — Median: 35.15
Feb: 34.4-37.4 — Median: 35.9
Jan: 36.5-37.7 — Median: 37.1
Now, sure, again, you could say ‘ok, but that’s only a variation of 6k…’ but that’s also a variation of 20%. So it’s demonstrably not true that we’ve been ‘about 30k players online every weekend’, unless you’re defining ‘about 30k’ broadly enough that you could be saying ‘about 30k’ even if we’d peaked at 23k.
And yes, Summer is always lower. However, if we look at last August, we see that on Mon, Aug 13 at 14:30, we were at 24k and trending upward. Right now at 1500 we’re at 21k. The non-DT trough at 0600 today put at at a baseline of 15.5k. A year ago: 17.9 at 0600 on the 2nd Monday of August. That’s a 15% drop, year over year.
Probably in the same way it’s decimating Provibloc: smaller groups that could survive, and felt like they were able to operate with only a reasonable amount of exposure, don’t anymore. The bigger groups are still reasonably sure that they can operate within the same basic levels of exposure they’d had, so they don’t really give a damn.
If the smaller groups didn’t have any options, they’d eventually adjust. But they do have options. They can exercise the same option people were using against HS wardecs, for years: Just go play something else.
When people did it in High Sec, CCP got yelled at to fix the problem.
When people do it in null, the players get yelled at for daring to want to spend their time doing something they enjoy.
Well, I say: good on them. If EVE isn’t something they’re enjoying, don’t pay CCP for EVE. It’s the only thing they listen to.