Player Count

Because anyone else can see that thread you refer to and know that your take on it is, in fact, nonsense. You, obviously, can’t so no reason to explain it to you any further.

My take on that is exactly the first thought that came to mind after seeing that announcement (9 hours ago) which brought out an honest observation and reason for suggesting such improvements that allowed myself to contribute on this player count thread which showed a possitive attitude on my behalf to the eve community.

If you have an issue with that, it is best to just report it.

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Dude what is wrong with you?

Do you get off on spreading false information?


Player count will not only recover but will go higher when Faction warfare update is released, imo. Unless it takes to long to be released then Eve might not make it.

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Maybe you should cut back on Shipwreck’s koolaid. But on the off-chance you’re speaking from ignorance and not from foolishness, here’s some facts for you:

  • The doomsayers have been doomsaying since 2003. They’re not very influential.
  • The doomsayers cry out on forums that less than 5% of EVE players read.
  • The doomsayers shift from the PvP crowd to the PvE crowd to the Indy crowd regularly.
  • The changes CCP implements, however, reach every single player in the game.

Now, a few random voices with no clear agenda that have been wailing for 2 decades? Or a decade of little to no content, extremely unpopular “fixes”, lies, broken promises, and active sabotaging of player efforts by CCP? Which has more influence on the player count?

Players stay when they are currently feeling engaged with the game, and also have confidence they will enjoy it in the future. When neither of those are present, players leave in large numbers.

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A lot of players are being alienated by the price hike, by the code of conduct violations at events recently and during the summer the hardcore toxic players have less noobs to go after. So noob toxicity saturation levels are higher.

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Oof didn’t even consider this, so the acid is evapourating xD

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You mean the sort of ‘facts’ that get presented with sawn off graphs or with zero regard to the fact that concurrency and ‘number of players’ are not actually the same thing ?

Heck, you could have a 25% fall in concurrency with exactly the same ‘number of players’…simply by people on average logging in for 25% less time. People present concurrency as if it were an exact measure of ‘number of players’ and hence you could use it to determine that people are ‘leaving’. But it isn’t ! Concurrency actually tells you nothing about the ‘number of players’…what it tells you is the average number logged in at any one time. It is far more a measure of how long people log in for. A graph of concurrency is NOT the same thing as ‘number of players’.

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You already stated this theoretical possibility in other thread, and I already factually proved the fallacy of it.

So guess you’re in the crowd that says “Hey I’m not going to let annoying facts get in the way of my opinions. My opinions are right no matter how wrong you prove them to be!”

Bit disappointed that so many people would rather live in a fantasy world than deal with reality. Still, that’s apparently not unusual around here, nor at CCP HQ either.

However, feel free to present any non-sawed off graphs or other factual details you have to back up your opinion. Perhaps you’ve seen a pattern nobody else knew existed.

(Previous reply:)

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Er…no…a statistically factual description of the data is a hell of a lot less fallacious than your personal opinion.

Sawn off graphs are statistically fallacious…they are a classic ploy for mis-representing data. Failing to point out that concurrency in January 2022 was actually only 6% lower than in January 2020 is statistically fallacious. Failing to point out that ‘number of people playing’ is not the same thing as concurrency…that is statistically fallacious too.

Those are facts…and facts trump personal opinion. You are the one ignoring the facts.

I’m not arguing that there are not, or cannot be, fewer ‘people playing’. I’m arguing that the extent of it is being deliberately mis-represented.

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I’m pretty sure data showing that, minute by minute, hour by hour, EVE having the exact same login pattern in early July of 2018 as it does in 2022, except with every interval being 5-6k players lower, doesn’t constitute “my personal opinion”.

That’s fact. That’s sampled data. That’s reality. That’s also a roughly 20% drop.

Trying to hare off on “well concurrent users could be just logging on for much shorter times” is a theoretical possibility, debunked by actual measured data. Ignoring 5 years of data (in the other thread you refer to here) in order to focus on one month only two years apart is hypocritical in the extreme when you’re going on about “misrepresentation of data”.

When you’ve got data that supports your point, show it. Otherwise you’re seen as yet another “alternative facts” inventor with more bluster than brains.

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You graph comparing July 2018 to July 2022…showing a 29% drop… needs to bear in mind that even a count of Steam logins to Eve varies by anything up to 18% per month. In June 2020 Steam logins fell by 18%…in August 2020 they rose by 18%. Ironically, Steam logins to Eve are ( even though we’re not yet at the end of July ) already 12% higher for July 2022 than for July 2018.

So I am suspicious of any graph that just compares month x of one year with month x of another year. One needs to see the full data to see how selective that data actually is.

Also, the number of new players a day in July 2018 was around 3,200 a day…whereas it is currently around 3,500 a day.

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That concurrency is not the same thing as ‘number of people playing’ is not a ‘theoretical possibility’. It is a fact. You might wish to look up the word in a dictionary as you don’t seem to know what it means.

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But you do not know whether it is a 20% drop in the ‘number of actual players’, or a 20% drop in ‘how long players were logged in for’, or a mixture of both.

People try to present it as if the entire drop is due to ‘people leaving’. But you could equally get a 20% drop in concurrency with the exact same ‘number of players’…if each person simply logged in for 20% less time. Or…if the ‘number of players’ fell by 10% and the remaining people logged in 10% less time. Or in fact any combination.

What I am rightly objecting to is people presenting concurrency figures as if they were the same thing as ‘number of players’ and thus using that as a measure of how many people are ‘leaving’. It is just plain wrong to automatically deduce that.

Actually you’re just splitting hairs over pointless differences in nomenclature. And cherry-picking data. And using data sources (eg. Steam) that represent only 15% or so of the data. And saying you’re skeptical of using only one months data, and then also cherry-picking one month’s data to gloss over the results of 5 years of data (in the other thread).

It’s a little like arguing that “sunny days are generally warmer” is not true because hey, some sunny days are cold, and some warm days aren’t sunny, so that relationship can’t be true.

People use EVE Offline PCU charts because they correlate very well with the population trends of EVE. People who’ve observed EVE for more than ten times as long as you have are well aware of these trends.

EVE Offline data is a sampling of the number of users online every 3 minutes or so throughout the day. For your contention that “the number of players” isn’t well represented by that, a large number of players would need to be logging on for less than 3 minutes, in between the sample periods. Or just skipping days altogether.

If true, that behavior pattern would actually be worse for EVE than even the obviously reduced player count.

We also have data from the annual CSM voting numbers, from direct observation of player activity in the game, and from the monthly MERs. All show activity trends in line with what everyone else is discussing, which is “2022 - lowest EVE player activity and numbers in well over a decade”.

All you’ve got against that is “graphs can’t be trusted”.

Tell you what - go use a data source that represents all the player activity (ie, not Steam) and show us all the time periods you care to in which overall EVE logins or activity numbers were lower than they are now. That would make your point with actual data.

Otherwise, you’re just blowing hot air.

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Utter nonsense.

The graphs show a clear case that proves my point…the very clear elephant in the room…the huge rise in concurrency in April 2020, just when the lockdown occurs. A rise of 28% in the space of a month or so. Clearly due to people having more time to play Eve.

Yet here you are, denying that a fall in concurrency could have anything to do with how long people log in for…never mind that how long people have to log in for stands out like a frikin sore thumb in the graphs themselves !

Duh !

I’m simply correctly pointing out that there’s a whole range of things other than ‘number of players’ that affect concurrency. Amount of time people log in for. Amount of multiboxing. Etc. And for the umpteen trillionth time I am not saying that the ‘number of players’ cannot be falling…only that it is NOT the same thing as concurrency and you cannot use concurrency to determine how many are ‘leaving’. There is nothing factually incorrect in any of those assertions.

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There is plently of acid beneath this ice that if challenged is enough to release an acid reflux. xD

/

What would be interesting is to estimate a percentage on the number of Capsuleers who were a part of the 2003-2008 period that are still present today.

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At this point, it’s just me. What does that tell you.

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I can’t recall ever seeing a reference or data on “original/beta/early player” numbers that are still playing. At Fanfest Hilmar said 57% of current EVE players were new since April 2018, so that says a fair bit right there.

My own oldest character would be from mid-2007 but has been lost to the vagaries of time, email and ISP changes. Multiple characters still active from 2008 and onwards. Personal experience is that of the roughly hundred pilots I flew or interacted with back then, I’ve not seen a single one online in the past 3 years. Several of them came back to try out Alpha state in 2016/2017, two came back for a brief bit at the start of 2019.

Which isn’t to say none of them play, just that I haven’t seen them on. My own playtime is quite limited as well.

It’s inconclusive, but I also do various searches for info that takes me back to EVE-related forum posts around 2007 and forward. Of the many, many posters from back then I see zero posting now (although Mr Epeen started posting around 2009 I believe and still posts today).

I’ve changed my posting account name several times since then myself so it’s not directly applicable, but I’d guess less than 15% of today’s players date back to before 2008. Probably a lot less.

There is a small group in the now dying missions chat channel in-game that are all 2008 or before vets. But the channel no longer being advertised/promoted by CCP in help channels etc is why it is so sparse there is very little new blood pouring in.

Shout out to Disposable Ensign, Nolak Ataru, Mintinni, Elyham, and others

My guess would be that most players from pre-08 who are still in the game would almost necessarily be people in a corp, social or chat group that has stuck together since then.

The chances that a solo/minimally social player would have stuck with EVE through that time period are very low, IMO.