Man, I wish people would stop flailing about and starting new threads on this.
No, a theoretical concept, from an ivory tower scholar, from 3 years ago, does not explain what is happening with EVE today. Nor are many of the assumptions and data even all that relevant anymore.
In Sep of 2018, CCP was acquired by Pearl Abyss, a Korean, F2P, grindfest, often decried as a “Pay 2 Win” game publisher. This is the biggest and most significant thing to have affected EVE’s potential future and direction, probably since EVE was released.
When big potential changes occur, speculators jump in wherever they think ‘future change’ will mean big market changes - shortages, changes in pricing, removal of products, whatever. Until PA makes their intentions (more) clear, it is potentially on the table that Plex might be pulled from the cash shop and something else put in its place. More likely, given the fact that hundreds of millions of RL $$ were spent on CCP, and that PA has to earn that back, some people may have assumed that the Plex cost of a month’s Omega might rise from 500 to 600, for instance.
Thus, people took a while to think about the potential consequences, and then this happened.
Jaggy blue line on top is the number of Plex actually traded each day. As can be seen, the number of Plex being bought/sold each day has changed very little over the past two years - trending slightly down. There is even a significant uptick in the past few months… more Plex is being traded than average! It would be nice if we had access to CCP numbers to see how many ‘raw’ Plex were being sold but I can’t find that anywhere.
The key event in my view, is the massive purchase on Nov.23/26 2018, where daily sales of approx. 2 million Plex ballooned to 3.7 million, 4.1 million, 5.8 million, and 4.3 million consecutively. Number of orders placed also more than doubled during this period. Average price per Plex went down noticeably, which means this was thousands of buy orders picking up all the cheap Plex across all the regions in EVE. (Orders placed during this period more than doubled.) This was followed by a couple days of lower prices, presumably by people who thought the lower average prices meant ‘Plex was on the way down’ and decided to sell quickly.
After that, we see the average price of Plex begin to rise steadily. Before this spike in trading/speculation/hoarding, the average price of Plex went from 2.6 million in May 2017 to 3.2 million in Nov.2018. 23% gain over 18 months. Somewhat high, but perhaps partially being driven by more Alpha accounts trying to Plex. After this spike, Plex went from 3.2 million to 4.2 million. 31% gain in less than 5 months. Most of the Plex traded during that peak period has not re-entered the market - either being hoarded for resale, or held in reserve to ensure the ability to Plex accounts later.
This is not a CCP supply/player demand problem. This is almost certainly a case of millions of Plex being taken out of the market in under a week, triggering a speculative momentum bubble that has not (as yet) had a Plex sale or other trigger to break it.