The siege of 9-4RP2 citadel and events around it brought my attention. Somebody calls it is the beginning of another war, but I have some scenting feelings about it and Deja view, based on published articles and videos about Fountain War, Asakai case, B-R5RB, Casino War (WWB). So, I watched some EVE news last week, like streams and video records. Well, I like the Grath Telkin’s response on Open Comms Show (from 36:00).
I can say that man, among not so many in this game, won this ‘■■■■■■■’ game. He knows very well how the things works in EVE in general and SOV space partially.
Overall, the 9-4RP2 looks like a trap. In that system the Imperium have advantage, while GoTG and PanFam have disadvantage. Huge Imperium forces are based in J5A-IX, which are in their controlled space and are close to that target system. Moreover, maybe huge reinforcement assets can be hidden somewhere in Syndicate. The PanFam core forces are situated much further, so they have huge fatigue disadvantage in other unexpected scenarios.
In my opinion, from history of real military operations, it’s a trap in Cloud Ring. The plan is to exchange an ALT Carrier fleet with North Super fleet. Being outnumbered, many active corporation members of ‘North’ should drop Supers to sustain incoming dps. Obviously, the Horde can mobilize and bring all their active members on BC and BS. Karma Fleet + Horde + 2000 Carriers + 10000 Fighters + SnuffedOut bombs = max TiDi and random DCs. So, the Fountain War DC case can happen, which will turn into equation (1 DC Nightmare from Bastion / 1 DC Erebus from PL) + (1 DC Maelstrom Horde/ 1 DC Hel NC) + (1 DC Nidhogur Goonswarm/1 DC Avatar DARKNESS) + etc. I must admit the Asakai brawl, based on available videos, where many ships were DC due to very high TiDi at that time. The same happened during MTO2-2 battle few months ago, where GoTG lost 2 Carriers next day due to DC. Moreover, other strange things can happen, like missed pay tax to CONCORD in B-R5RB.
I can point many real battles in history, which looks similar. For example, Battle of Trafalgar during the Napoleonic Wars. That was a core battle to gain dominance over global waters during so called Colonial War era.
The Battle of Trafalgar (21 October 1805) was a naval engagement fought by the British Royal Navy against the combined fleets of the French and Spanish Navies, during the War of the Third Coalition (August–December 1805) of the Napoleonic Wars (1796–1815).
Twenty-seven British ships of the line led by Admiral Lord Nelson aboard HMS Victory defeated thirty-three French and Spanish ships of the line under the French Admiral Villeneuve in the Atlantic Ocean off the southwest coast of Spain, just west of Cape Trafalgar, near the town of Los Caños de Meca. The Franco-Spanish fleet lost twenty-two ships, without a single British vessel being lost. It was the most decisive naval battle of the war.
The British victory spectacularly confirmed the naval supremacy that Britain had established during the eighteenth century and was achieved in part through Nelson’s departure from the prevailing naval tactical orthodoxy.
Admiral Nelson died in that battle, but with him he sunk entire French fleet.
How Nelson won: His ships had addition steam engines, which granted addition maneuvering to his ships.
Something similar happened during the Battle of Waterloo. The Napoleonic power was based on artillery, but that day was rainy, and gunpowder was wet.
Grath is right. In this ‘Meta’ concept there isn’t any sense to project huge power on the ‘grid’ far away. This ‘Meta’, this SoV and these Citadels not allows to players and their alliances to perform a nomadic conquering campaign with all their force. With each system towards North for Imperium will be harder and harder to conquer enemy citadels and similar to it with each system towards South for PanFam will be harder and harder to conquer and gain control. To blow up a Citadel is required like two weeks, for all three timers, no matter you have on the grid 5 Carriers or 1000 Carriers. To win the Fozzie SoV with Capitals is hard and North forces have advantage over Constellations vs smaller Imperium fleets. This Meta is static for established SoV entities and impossible for the current nomadic entities. For SnuffedOut was unreal to conquer a SoV space at that time, so they joined to one of the strongest and most comfortable entity. EVE needs more strong SoV entities like 7-10, which have some conflict of interest based on the game mechanics, to make the continuum of EVE wars work without any kind of renegades or demolishing battles. With this SoV Meta the Imperium should roam North for one or two years, if opponents will not show in that Cloud Ring system. During this time their home systems can be attacked by different forces from Khanid, Curse whatever. It’s no sense to drop all force to defend a Citadel, a Keepstar even, if at MTO2-2 system a Keepstar was used like a lure for unimportant purpose.
I have neutral position to all SoV entities. If the North will horrible lose their power than EVE will turn cold for the next 2 years. If the North will bring light forces there, then Cloud Ring can become a battleground, like Providence. To make the SoV wars different, the current Meta mechanic should be changed, and I think at next FanFest some info about it can pop up.