Victory in Ossogur - the tide has turned

A few hours ago I had the honor to be present in the system of Osoggur as it was made secure against Triglavian encroachments. Our victory in that system is to be celebrated in its own right, but it also provides definitive confirmation that there has been a sea change in the wider Triglavian conflict.

When the Triglavians first began to create a permanent presence for themselves in New Eden, they were, on the whole, far more effective in recruiting capsuleers to their side than were those who opposed the invasions. Zorya promised dynamism and change; in contrast, EDENCOM’s defense of the status quo seemed bland and boring to many. As a result, not only did the so-called “Kybernauts” outnumber their opponents in most engagements, but they were also more experienced on average (a “bittervet” is likely to be more receptive to promises of novelty and change than a recently-licensed pilot to whom everything is new). In addition, we were markedly slower to organize than the “Kybernauts.”

We fought long, we fought hard, and we saved many stars. But Raravoss fell, despite the superiority of the Imperial Navy. Vale, where Triglavian and Federation forces were evenly matched, also fell. In Eygfe we broke the will of Zorya’s hordes, but it took three grueling days–even though EDENCOM had already significantly reinforced the system before large opposing capsuleer forces arrived.

But, with every engagement, we learned, we became stronger. When Darkezero set up communication channels and named them “EDENCOM Defense Initiative”, he began the long process of turning our loose assemblage into a cohesive community and an organized fighting force. We developed doctrines, adopted leaders, created operating procedures, established multiple levels of secure communication channels, wrote guides, organized an SRP program, learned to predict the timing and star harvest risk of invasions. Most importantly, we developed an identity–we hail from many empires and alliances, but we are proudly part of EDI.

Our message spread. With every system that fell, the atrocities of the Triglavians became more numerous and more apparent. Trade routes were disrupted, staging systems eliminated, income sources destroyed. People awoke to the necessity of defeding the systems they loved. So they joined us, or organized their own fleets and fought alongside us.

Meanwhile, Zorya’s lies became apparent for what they were. Final liminality systems did not see activity, dynamism, or change. Instead they die long, slow deaths. The “Flow of Vyraj,” once touted as a mighty torrent rushing towards a renewal for New Eden, was revealed to be nothing but a sickly swamp, where mosquitoes swarm above the water as unidentifiable refuse rots below. The “Kybernauts” bled numbers, and are still bleeding. In Raravoss they mustered a force of hundreds; today, forty people is a very good showing for them.

The battle for Ossogur was a test—Triglavian and Republic Fleet forces are evenly matched, so it was capsuleers who determined the outcome of the fight. The “Kybernaut” morale broke after less than a day of fighting, and after that we made short work of what remained of Zorya’s forces.

The tide has turned. To all those who made this possible: it has been, and continues to be, my greatest honor to have flown with you.

Together, we’ll build a Staircase to Heaven!

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I cannot blame you for celebrating the work we’ve done or the win we came away with in Osoggur, but don’t grow complacent.

We’ve many more battles ahead of us in this war and need to stay focused. As strong as we may have become, the Triglavian sympathizers aren’t to be underestimated. It seems to me that they’re generally stronger in the day to early evening and we’re generally stronger in the late evening to early morning, going by New Eden Standard Time.

Good work in Osoggur and elsewhere, but we haven’t won the war yet. Another State system just went to final liminality in the last batch of invasions, after all.

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Agreed. We still lose in Caldari space, and our victories everywhere else are by no means easily won. In addition, Zorya could change tactics at any moment…

But, for now, we are winning this war, and we can’t afford to forget it, just as we can’t afford to forget what still lies ahead.

I mean… maybe?

We’ve secured more systems than the Triglavians have taken control of…

But that is still a net loss of systems considering that before the invasions, the empires controlled all of them and the Triglavians none. And that is before you even get to the added baggage that comes with the EDENCOM fortifications.

We’ve controlled the damage as best we could and generally did as well as could be hoped for outside of the State, but damage has still been done…

We can’t forget that. Even if we “win,” we’ve lost. We have to keep improving, keep working hard, and prevent the damage we can.

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If it was a sports competition where you win if you score more points than the opponent, sure. We’d be winning.

It is not.

Every system we’ve lost is lost no matter how many fortresses we build. The Caldari State becoming a Triglavian foothold is a threat no matter how bigger the fortified Amarr Empire.

And even now, we do not know what the triglavians are after. We do not know if any diplomatic connections by any party have been successful even at establishing the connection, let alone negotiations.

Taken generously, you could say we are holding the line at the Caldari border. But we are not winning.

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That is why It matters to fight over the systems. Every won battle is an immense success because triglavians cant settle there. :muscle:

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I suspect those who support the Kybernaut cause have weak ties to Empire and are now more interested in the Nullsec conflict.

Will they return if a major trade route comes under threat and their action could significantly reshape the map?

Can you really say that the tide has turned when most of the systems where EDENCOM has been active have ended up like this, in addition to what @Arsia_Elkin said about how the empires hold fewer systemss than they did before?

I can’t say for certain who they are. I know that my lack of direct ties to an empire is why I’ve paid almost no attention. I may mostly stay around empire space when not participating in some sort of Null campaign (either Black Rise, in the Caldari territory contested by the Federation, or Derelik, in the Ammatar Mandate), but while I feel some loyalty to the Amarr Empire still, I barely bother with the empires at all. There’s really no way to say that I’m not a pirate at this point. I’ve focused my efforts on multiple capsuleer wars (one of which ended last week after the other side decided to leave). However, I can’t imagine there being a huge amount of change if trade routes get altered. They don’t seem interested in many of the trade chokepoint systems (where capsuleer trade interdiction efforts are often the biggest danger). The one which seems like it might be of interest to them, Niarja, is in Amarr space and the Amarrian forces don’t seem to need much help with the matter.

The undeniable fact is that EDENCOM had more success in battles than Triglavians. With the continuing trend where EDENCOM becomes even more powerfull, the Triglavians will have even less success.

Who knows, maybe there will be time when EDENCOM will even push back invaders into the place they came from, after completely stopping invasion, and after finding the way towards the origin of the triglavians.

why did ossogur only become a minor victory and not an EDENCOM Fortress?

We believe at the moment that there are certain star types that the triglavians are specifically interested in and where they build their “liminalities”. Edencom seems to these days also only strongly fortify these systems, leaving only a minor presence in other places.

The possible exception to this is Yeeramount, in Domain, where a massive Edencom fortification was started even though most researched believe orange stars are not risk systems.

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but ossogur is a yellow star

I wrote the above when I was tired and sleepy. Being now awake and refreshed, I find things that I should rephrase and clarify.

When I wrote that we were “winning,” I didn’t mean to say that we can call the overall course of the war a “victory”—we are far worse off than a few months ago, and I doubt we will ever be able to recover all our lost ground.

But, in terms of recruitment, morale, effectiveness in combat, and a hundred other things, we are now doing much better than our capsuleer enemies—which means that, if the rumors that the Amarr are helping the Caldari Navy not be useless actually pan out, we can feel confident that soon no more systems will fall (assuming also Zorya does not change its tactics). That’s not a victory but it is the closest thing that we could possibly have expected to have to “victory” one month ago.

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It’s a K3 class yellow star. The Triglavians seem to only harvest the G5 class yellow stars.

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there are quite a few minor victories in G5 systems, wonder what causes that

I believe it’s something to do with the spectrum type of the specific G5 stars, but I’m sure somebody more knowledgeable than me on the specifics can explain it better.

That is, if you pull up the information on a star via your neocom, it shows a spectral class. I believe it has to do with that.
starduban

The Republic probably also told Edencom no. Weary of foreign presence in soverign space and all that.

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Yes, it’s got to do with the specifics of the star. EM’s hired a team of folks to work with me in data gathering and they are pretty confident they’ve cracked it. You can see their estimates per star here: http://tinyurl.com/harvestrisk

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There’s another change worth paying attention to, and it’s one you should not underestimate.

In the early days of the invasion, TEST anchored structures in Raravoss and other systems, basing out of those citadels to assist the Trigs. Horde, likewise, turned up to hunt the navy ships, as did a number of smaller null groups.

They are not there now. Perhaps one or two, but they are not there in the numbers they were bringing. They are busy right now. That will not last forever.

Make every gain you can while they are focused on us, instead. Whether it comes from victory, defeat, or getting tired of the grind, they won’t stay gone forever. And when they come back, they’ll come back in numbers, with organization.

Do not get complacent. Win, as well as you can, while you have this better chance.

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This is very true. TEST and Horde members specifically were lending a fair bit of support to the Triglavian forces.

They’re both tied up at the moment.