The downward trend in in-game activity is rather obvious. I don’t think this needs to be discussed, especially not if this means the end of Eve or not (yet).
However, the original post touches an important aspect that has heavy influence on player numbers, because it has to do with the acquisition and retention of new players.
As most of us aren’t really new and in the game, for maybe similar oder maybe completely different reasons, we can only imagine for ourselves how it would be if we get into the game as new players now.
And as I already answered that from my point of view earlier, I am now wondering if this is the right question. Maybe we should ask: is there enough reason to play this game over any other (similar) game?
Of course there is nothing that really compares to Eve, but there are other sandbox MMOs, other Sci-Fi games, other (real) F2P games. There is so much to choose from that even small things can make a difference - especially negative things.
I tried Age of Conan some years ago. Started the game, played for an hour and realized that there isn’t even enough inventory space to store crafting materials. I looked at the shop, wondered about prices and felt like they were trying to rip me off: a F2P game that “forces” me to spend money before I could really make up my mind if I like the game or not. Switched it off, deinstalled and never touched it again.
I doesn’t even matter if my feelings were justified or if I only had a wrong impression or missed something: felt bad → gone away.
Unfortunately, Eve has probably a lot of those turn offs, many of them mentioned somewhere in this thread.
Why should someone stick around in spite of breaking the NPE or being annoyed by upgrade and buy-buttons?
One thing would be: there is some light at the end of the tunnel - preferably the light of some fancy explosion.
There are some things that make Eve great: the big fights, the drama, scams, thefts, people, freedom of choice and so on.
The first one is especially noteworthy as there were occurances were fights made it into other media and draw in lots of new (and returning) players. I won’t go so far in saying that there are no more epic fights anymore, but there are definitely not enough. Not enough stuff to fight over, no mechanics that really encourage fights (at least not like it used to be) and in consequence no wars that make people log in.
Do not make everything more appealing to small groups using small ships in small time frames. Give people something to strive for. And no, i don’t mean a ratting carrier, but rather being part of somethign that feels like it would matter in eve (and entosing ■■■■ or doing the second timer on the 36th citadel doesn’t).
“Fix” Eve from top down and at the same time, clean up the bottom: set player expectations straight, teach them the important stuff, don’t annoy them with having the game look like one big item shop.