Well, most of the trade traffic goes through just two of them as is, and they’re already watched pretty much 24/7. Minmatar space can’t access Jita directly, and is only connected to Dodixie/Amarr, so the Minmatar market is weakest overall, so Minmatar routes aren’t watched quite as much. In fact, Minmatar is so weak market-wise these days that sometimes you can’t even buy basic T1 hulls or T2 modules in the two primary hub systems.
To create a single artery, you would need to remove just one of the four existing choke points today, reducing the “figure eight” to a “zig-zag”. This would actually likely result in less danger between each individual hop, since gankers would need to camp three pipes, instead of just two, to catch all of the traffic. This would hold especially true if Minmatar space winds up as one of the two “inner” areas on the route.
I agree, and on a small scale that will be the case.
But we have to remember why trade hubs exist from the shopper’s, not the seller’s, point of view. When players shop, they tend to prefer to go to a one-stop solution to get everything they need, and not go to a bunch of different places to get their goods, even if they’re cheaper. This behavioral tendency can sustain the existence of a few market hubs, but not in extreme adversity. Take reasonably accessible trade routes away, and players will flock to a single, central location.
Once again, speaking from a buyer’s perspective. Buyers tend to be less concerned with price than with convenience. For example, would you travel 12 extra jumps to save 4 million ISK on a BC? Probably not, right? But for a trader or manufacturer, that kind of margin could be huge.
This is where your theory falls down.
If Niarja & Uedema went lowsec most of that demand outside of Caldari space would vanish as a lot of people would relocate to be within easy access to Jita.
Which means those trade hubs now cut off would also shrink dramatically.
Right facts, but wrong conclusion. This situation is why the market won’t consolidate into a single system. Buyers will pay more to buy in a local hub, especially if going to Jita means a trip through dangerous space. And that means that sellers have a strong incentive to figure out a way to meet demand, as they can charge a significant profit margin for their trouble instead of competing with Jita’s hordes of “minerals I mine myself are free” idiots. The only way there would be a significant danger of losing the other market hubs is if people stop using non-Caldari space (and all of the nullsec regions connected to it) entirely.
I’m not convinced. Even if you assume that all of the useless highsec farmers will relocate and CCP will do nothing to create any scarcity to push them back there’s still all of nullsec to consider. People aren’t going to abandon their nullsec empires to get a better Jita route, which means demand for people to bring the the market to other regions.
And TBH if pressure to be near Jita mattered that much nobody would be anywhere else as it is. Why do anything in highsec outside a 5 jump radius of Jita when you can farm all the level 4 missions you want without any scarcity?
Initially, but then they’ll start migrating to the area with the most reliable market.
Null-sec folk can jump their stuff, which is an option that is too high-end for most high-sec rabble. Most null guys go to Jita to buy and sell, as they always have. If that weren’t the case, then Amarr space would be the main market area of the game, with Minmatar space a close second.
I’m pretty sure you already see massive clumping around Jita if you look at various metrics.
However, right now I can farm in Amarr space as an example, and when I want a new ship I can casually wander over to Jita and buy it.
Because even right now Amarr markets aren’t always able to fit any ship at a sensible price.
If that gets cut off, all the above changes. And it becomes worth clumping closer to Jita.
Yes it won’t be universal, but it would make the other empires high sec islands. the sheer volume of trade that goes through Jita makes it the main hub and anything not linked counts as an island.
Your predictions are all based around no one bothering to move at all.
And your predictions are based around CCP doing nothing to discourage consolidating all of highsec into a 5 jump radius from Jita. It would be pretty straightforward to add scarcity mechanics that force you to find less-crowded space or not make any ISK.
However, right now I can farm in Amarr space as an example, and when I want a new ship I can casually wander over to Jita and buy it.
But why would you want to farm in Amarr space? If you value Jita access why not farm next to Jita?
I suspect you would find it’s less straightforward than you think to design a balanced scarcity mechanic for EVE. It’s easy to come up with the bones of an idea but the devil is in the details of this sort of thing.
But also that requires CCP to develop ANOTHER new thing. Rather than just using the thing already in play.
Because right now Amarr space has Jita access? Its a few more jumps sure. But it’s still 'safe (by EVE standards) and fairly convenient.
Sure. But, unlike CCP’s employees, I’m not a full-time professional game developer. One would hope that in the process of designing this new event they considered worst-case scenarios like “everyone moves to Jita” and have a head start on designing and balancing mechanics to put demand and population density back where they should be.
But also that requires CCP to develop ANOTHER new thing. Rather than just using the thing already in play.
Well yes, but developing a new thing is already the case with this event. Having a scarcity mechanic standing by gives them a lot more freedom to develop the current shiny new thing without worrying about keeping it out of special snowflake systems that the carebear hordes can’t live without.
Because right now Amarr space has Jita access? Its a few more jumps sure. But it’s still 'safe (by EVE standards) and fairly convenient.
But why add any jumps at all? What benefit is there to being in Amarr space when you can live right next to Jita?
I think that this is precisely why they won’t cut off the empires from each other. Make travel take longer, sure, but not cut off by making the connectors low-sec.
I think we already know that most carebears will prefer to take a nearly infinite hit to efficiency than the most minute increase in risk.
So is the goal here just to turn all of the game into nullsec? Or to significantly reduce the number of highsec locations?
If so, wouldn’t that simply mean that people would join these giant afk alliances? Do large existing alliances really need that much more power? Already null is pretty much ‘join or get ■■■■■■’ sort of happening. Also there has to be at least some form of consistency and security right?
CCP is already showing signs of implementing processes in order to severely punish people who assume any sort of security while still showing now signs of changing why people want that security (■■■■ can be expensive yo). Doesn’t anyone else think that significantly reducing protected areas could lead to a mass migration or are people just counting on it?
I do a lot of solo play roaming back and forth from low to high and wormhole. I generally just need enough to carry my nomadic ass where I need while doing my best to reduce the potential loss. If there’s going to be more potential loss, what am I going to get in return? People just seem too excited to quintessentially murder one another for what is basically a bag of chips.
Sounds to me like CCP just wants to create more venues for people who don’t stay updated to incur heavy and sudden losses just to see if they’ll plex to recover.
It’s probably going to be just a few systems that get flipped. Maybe a couple of dozen in total.
And objectively-speaking, there’s way too much high-sec in the game to begin with. Most of those systems are completely unused, acting only as travel filler for players to go through on their way between major destinations. The game would be a lot more interesting if most empire systems were low-sec.
Of course, at the same time, low-sec itself needs to be re-balanced, with severe capital ship restrictions, and increased rewards for various PvE activities.
Money is relative. If what you need to buy ends up costing more space bucks, what you want to sell will be worth more space bucks as well.
If hauling suddenly becomes the most profitable activity in the game, believe me that competent, experienced players will switch to it for their primary income source, and prices will bounce back and forth until a new market equilibrium is reached. Maybe the transportation premium will end up being slightly higher in the end, but not by enough to affect anyone’s enjoyment of the game.